沙特阿拉伯正面临复杂的地缘政治抉择，试图在美伊冲突中保持克制，但却因来自伊拉克、伊朗和也门多方的持续攻击而被迫逐步介入[1]。本周沙特与美国对伊朗在伊拉克的代理武装力量进行了联合打击[1]。沙特需要在继续反击以维持威慑力与争取缓和局势之间做出艰难选择[1]。
过去数年间，沙特的石油设施和国家安全多次遭受威胁。伊拉克民兵组织曾对沙特发动30次无人机袭击[1]，而2019年9月伊朗代理武装更是对阿卜盖格和库赖斯两处重要油田实施无人机攻击，导致沙特石油出口中断数日[1]。伊朗在2月的报复行动中有效关闭了霍尔木兹海峡，全球20%的石油和液化天然气通过该海峡运输[1]。此外，沙特于7月13日轰炸了也门首都外的萨那机场[1]。尽管沙特与也门胡塞武装在2022年达成了不稳定的停火协议[1]，但局势仍未真正稳定。这些挑战使沙特既要保护其石油出口安全，又要推进"2030愿景"现代化建设计划[1]。
Saudi Arabia finds itself in an increasingly difficult position as it attempts to avoid direct involvement in escalating US-Iran tensions while facing mounting military pressure from multiple fronts. This week, the kingdom joined the United States in conducting joint strikes against Iranian proxy militias operating in Iraq [1], marking another step toward deeper entanglement in regional hostilities despite its preference for neutrality.
The kingdom has come under sustained assault from three directions. Iraqi militia groups have launched approximately 30 drone attacks against Saudi territory [1], while Iran's proxies have previously targeted critical infrastructure with devastating effect—in September 2019, coordinated drone strikes on the Abqaiq and Kurais oil facilities disrupted Saudi petroleum exports for several days [1]. More recently, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz during February retaliation operations, a waterway through which 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas transit [1]. Additionally, Saudi Arabia conducted airstrikes on Sanaa airport near Yemen's capital on July 13 [1], maintaining an unstable ceasefire with Houthi forces that was agreed upon in 2022 [1].
Saudi Arabia now faces a strategic dilemma: whether to continue retaliatory measures to maintain deterrence or pursue de-escalation, all while protecting its vital oil exports and the ambitious Vision 2030 modernization program [1]. The mounting attacks have progressively drawn the kingdom into direct conflict despite its stated desire to remain outside the broader US-Iran confrontation.