伊朗政府面临日益严峻的燃料供需失衡。政府发言人Fatemeh Mohajerani于7月25日表示，燃油价格上调或配给制度调整已成为确定且不可避免的选择[1]。官方报告显示，汽油最高等级价格可能从现有的5000托曼升至10000托曼，涨幅接近100%[1]。
供应缺口持续扩大是价格调整的主要驱动因素。伊朗当前日均汽油产量约1.21亿升，而日均消费约1.29亿升[1]。自2019年以来，日均汽油使用增加了约3900万升，而产能仅增加约1600万升[1]。
这一举措可能引发社会震荡。2026年基本月最低工资约1660万托曼（约87美元）[1]，价格翻倍将严重压低居民购买力。历史上，伊朗在2019年11月曾因燃油价格大幅上涨引发全国抗议，最终导致伊朗伊斯兰共和国历史上最血腥的镇压之一[1]。
Iran's government spokesperson announced on July 25 that adjustments to fuel pricing or rationing measures are inevitable as the country faces a widening gap between gasoline production and consumption [1]. Fatemeh Mohajerani stated that changes to fuel prices are both certain and unavoidable [1]. Current tiered subsidized gasoline prices range from a low of 1,500 tomans per liter to a high of 5,000 tomans per liter, with reports indicating the maximum price could rise to 10,000 tomans per liter—representing an increase of nearly 100 percent, though this has not yet been officially confirmed [1].
The fuel imbalance has become increasingly acute, with Iran's daily gasoline production standing at approximately 121 million liters while daily consumption reaches about 129 million liters [1]. This supply-demand mismatch has intensified substantially since 2019, when daily gasoline usage increased by roughly 39 million liters while production capacity expanded by only 16 million liters [1]. Iran's basic monthly minimum wage in 2026 is approximately 16.6 million tomans, equivalent to roughly $87 [1].
The government's consideration of such measures reflects lessons from 2019, when a sharp increase in fuel prices sparked nationwide protests and what became one of the Islamic Republic's bloodiest crackdowns in history [1].