黎巴嫩、美国和以色列于6月26日达成的试点区计划已启动一周多,该协议旨在通过以色列逐步从南黎巴嫩撤军、由黎巴嫩军队接管来遏制真主党在该地区的活动[1]。然而,协议执行情况与预期目标存在显著偏差。以色列军队持续对黎巴嫩士兵开火、拆除民居并投放无人机炸弹[1]。黎巴嫩总统约瑟夫·奥恩向联合国人权事务主任表示,以色列军队的行为危害了该协议[1]。
协议框架本身也面临多项结构性缺陷。美国智库Stimson中心中东项目负责人指出,该框架未规定撤军时间表,真主党解除武装的标准不明确,监督方身份也未确定[1]。欧洲对外关系委员会中东项目主任表示,协议条款由以色列主导制定,为其对南黎巴嫩的长期占领提供了空间[1]。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡本周表示以色列不会很快从黎巴嫩撤军[1]。国际层面,法国和意大利在6月末表示愿意领导"国际联盟支持黎巴嫩"[1]。
Lebanon, the United States, and Israel launched a pilot zone plan more than a week after reaching an agreement on June 26, designed to halt Hezbollah activities in southern Lebanon through Israel's gradual withdrawal and Lebanese military takeover of the region [1]. However, the gap between reality and the plan's objectives has become starkly apparent. Israeli forces continue to fire on Lebanese soldiers, demolish residential buildings, and deploy drone strikes in the area [1]. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has conveyed to UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk that Israeli military conduct undermines the agreement [1].
Critical gaps in the framework have drawn scrutiny from international analysts. Randa Slim, director of the Middle East program at the Stimson Center, points out that the framework lacks a specific withdrawal timeline, contains no clear standards for Hezbollah disarmament, and leaves the monitoring mechanism undefined [1]. Julien Barnes-Dacey, head of the Middle East program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, argues that the agreement's terms were shaped by Israel and create space for prolonged occupation of southern Lebanon [1]. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated this week that Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon quickly [1].
France and Italy expressed willingness in late June to lead an "international coalition in support of Lebanon" [1]. Local residents, however, remain skeptical of the pilot zone plan's prospects [1].