中共中央预料7月底召开政治局会议 聚焦经济形势和五中全会时间

中共中央预料将在7月底召开政治局会议1，作为年中重要会议，总结上半年经济发展情况、部署下半年工作1。根据数据，第一季经济成长率为5%、第二季下降至4.3%，上半年年增4.7%1，全年经济成长目标为4.5%至5%1。

本次会议将聚焦两大核心议题。其一是研判经济形势并确定宏观调控基调1。国务院总理李强提出要加大逆周期调节力度，用好用足存量政策，预研储备增量政策1。其二是敲定中共二十届五中全会的召开时间，预计在10月举行1。考虑到11月APEC峰会的安排，10月召开五中全会机会较高1。此外，会议还将处理中央委员递补、追认落马高官开除党籍等人事问题1。

China's Communist Party leadership is anticipated to convene a Politburo meeting in late July to assess economic performance and lock in the timing for the 20th Central Committee's Fifth Plenum 1. As a mid-year gathering, the session will review first-half economic results and chart priorities for the remainder of the year 1.

Economic performance has shown a decelerating trend, with first-quarter growth at 5 percent, followed by a slowdown to 4.3 percent in the second quarter, bringing the first-half annual growth rate to 4.7 percent 1. Against this backdrop, the full-year economic growth target remains set at 4.5 to 5 percent 1. Premier Li Qiang has called for stepping up counter-cyclical measures, making fuller use of existing policy tools, and researching and preparing new incremental policies 1.

The meeting is expected to focus on two principal areas: determining the macroeconomic control stance based on current conditions, and settling arrangements for the Fifth Plenum, which typically convenes in autumn 1. Given the scheduled November Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, October has emerged as the more likely month for holding the Fifth Plenum 1. Beyond economic policy, the gathering will also address personnel matters, including supplemental appointments of Central Committee members and disciplinary actions such as the expulsion from the party of fallen officials including Ma Xingrui 1.