欧洲和北美地区的野火日趋极端，但全球火灾碳排放却处于创纪录低位，这一看似矛盾的现象反映了人类活动对不同地区火灾格局的深刻影响。[1]西班牙野火面积超过193平方英里（500平方公里），创该国记录，[1]欧洲2025年野火燃烧面积接近历史高位。[1]与此同时，加拿大和美国今年夏季燃烧面积至少比10年平均值高25%，是数十年前的两倍多。[1]气候变化使北美和欧洲火灾季节延长，火灾强度和频率增加。[1]
然而，全球火灾整体趋势向下。[1]今年7月全球火灾碳排放进入创纪录低位，约为2000年代初期的一半，[1]过去25年卫星测量数据显示全球火灾碳排放为最低水平。[1]这种差异的主要原因在于地域分布的巨大差异：全球植物燃烧排放的四分之三以上来自非洲和亚洲，北美和欧洲占不到八分之一。[1]非洲和亚洲通过改变农业实践和火灾管理有效控制了火灾，人口迁移和土地利用改变也促进了这些地区火灾的减少。[1]专家指出，El Niño预计将加剧热带火灾风险。[1]
A stark contradiction is unfolding in global wildfire patterns, with extreme fire activity concentrated in developed regions even as planetary-wide burning statistics plunge to record lows. Europe and North America are experiencing unprecedented wildfire severity, yet Africa and Asia have dramatically curtailed their fire emissions through agricultural reforms and improved fire management, reshaping the global fire landscape.[1]
Spain has witnessed wildfires scorching more than 193 square miles, marking a national record.[1] Europe's 2025 wildfire season is approaching historical peaks in burned area.[1] Meanwhile, Canada and the United States have seen summer burning rates climb at least 25 percent above their ten-year average, more than double the levels from decades past.[1] These intensifying fires in the Global North are primarily driven by climate change, which has extended fire seasons and amplified both the intensity and frequency of blazes in these regions.[1]
Yet this regional escalation masks a striking global reversal. Global vegetation fires produced carbon emissions in July that reached record lows for the month, approximately half the levels seen in the early 2000s.[1] Over the past 25 years, satellite measurements have recorded the lowest global fire carbon emissions on record.[1] Africa and Asia now account for more than three-quarters of all plant biomass burned globally, while North America and Europe contribute less than one-eighth.[1] The reduction in African and Asian fire activity stems from population migration patterns and changing land use practices.[1] Climate scientists warn that forecasted El Niño conditions could intensify fire risks in tropical regions, potentially disrupting this downward trend.[1]