全球科技股和芯片股遭遇大幅抛售，投资者对人工智能产业的长期融资前景产生严重担忧。费城半导体指数过去一个月下跌超过25%，纳斯达克下跌超过8%，"Mag7"科技股指数下跌超过10%[1]。芯片巨头中，Nvidia美股周一下跌5%，失去全球市值第一地位，被苹果超越[2]；SK海力士美股下跌7.5%，跌至149美元以下[2]；ASML本月市值下跌近20%[1]。
亚洲股市跌势更为剧烈。韩国Kospi指数周二下跌10.8%，其间触发熔断机制暂停交易20分钟[2]，过去五周跌幅超过三分之一[1]。三星电子下跌超过13%[2]，SK海力士因上季度利润未达分析师预期而下跌12.6%[3]。日本日经225指数下跌近4%[2]，台湾加权指数下跌3.6%[3]，上证综合指数下跌0.5%[3]。
市场风险情绪恶化的背后，是超大规模云计算公司不断膨胀的资本支出和融资压力。谷歌母公司Alphabet第二季度首次出现资本支出后的负现金流，资本支出达450亿美元，全年资本支出预期从1800-1900亿美元提高至1950-2050亿美元[1]。特斯拉6月季度也出现负现金流，支出58亿美元[1]。高盛估计Alphabet、Amazon、Microsoft、Meta四家公司到2030年将投资约5.3万亿美元[1]，而超大规模云计算公司预计今年投资达7500亿美元[1]。
融资成本随之上升，暴露了AI生态的脆弱性。AI行业四大超大规模公司已从债市融资超过4000亿美元，总AI相关债务至少5000亿美元，日本日经新闻估计还有1.6万亿美元隐性债务及租赁承诺[1]。SpaceX债券交易价格比无风险债券高超过2个百分点，被视为垃圾债券[1]。超大规模公司债务违约保险成本过去一年上升超过50个基点[1]，其中杠杆最高的Oracle，信用违约掉期成本约每年215,000美元（按1000万美元敞口计）[1]。债务投资者风险偏好下降，融资成本攀升反映出市场对这些巨额AI投资回报前景的深刻忧虑。
A sharp decline across technology and artificial intelligence stocks has prompted investors worldwide to question the financial viability of the AI boom, driven by mounting concerns over the massive capital expenditure requirements and resulting debt burdens of major cloud computing companies.
Major semiconductor and tech indices have experienced substantial losses in recent trading. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 25 percent over the past month, while the Nasdaq declined more than 8 percent and the "Magnificent Seven" technology stocks index dropped more than 10 percent [1]. In Asia, South Korea's Kospi index experienced a particularly sharp decline, falling 10.8 percent on Tuesday with a 20-minute trading halt triggered by circuit breakers [2], and declining further to 8 percent by Wednesday to reach 5,547.77 points [3]. The benchmark has declined approximately one-third over the past five weeks [1]. Individual chip manufacturers suffered steep losses: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both declined more than 13 percent [2], with SK Hynix further dropping 12.6 percent as its latest quarter's profits fell short of analyst expectations [3]. ASML's market capitalization declined nearly 20 percent this month [1], while Nvidia fell 5 percent on Monday, ceding its position as the world's most valuable company to Apple [2].
The selloff reflects growing anxiety about whether hyperscaler cloud computing companies can generate adequate returns on their extraordinary infrastructure investments. Alphabet reported negative free cash flow for the first time in the second quarter despite $45 billion in capital expenditure, with full-year capital spending guidance increased from $180–190 billion to $195–205 billion [1]. Tesla reported negative cash flow in the June quarter with $5.8 billion in capital expenditure and set a full-year capital spending target of $25 billion [1]. Hyperscalers collectively are projected to invest $750 billion this year [1], with Goldman Sachs estimating that Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta will invest approximately $5.3 trillion combined through 2030 [1].
The debt burden underlying these investments has become a focal point for market concern. The four major hyperscalers have already raised more than $400 billion from debt markets, with total AI-related debt reaching at least $500 billion [1]. Japan's Nikkei estimates an additional $1.6 trillion in implicit debt and lease commitments [1]. Financing costs have risen as debt investors pull back: hyperscaler debt default insurance costs have increased more than 50 basis points over the past year [1], while SpaceX bonds trade more than 200 basis points above risk-free rates and are considered junk-rated [1]. Oracle, identified as the highest-leverage hyperscaler, faces credit default swap costs of approximately $215,000 annually per $10 million in exposure [1].
Market turbulence extended across Asia, with the Nikkei 225 index declining nearly 4 percent [2] and 1.1 percent in subsequent trading [3], Taiwan's weighted index falling 3.6 percent [3], and China's Shanghai Composite slipping 0.5 percent [3]. European markets showed greater resilience, with the UK FTSE 100, French CAC 40, and German DAX 40 each rising approximately 0.6 percent on Tuesday [2].