英国国家经济与社会研究院（NIESR）向新首相安迪·伯纳姆发出警告，由于中东冲突推高油价和通胀，英国政府在即将公布的秋季预算中将面临"极其困难的权衡"。[1]
NIESR预计未来七个月内通胀将升至3.8%，远高于英格兰银行的目标。[1]这一压力直接挤压了政府的可用预算空间——预算可用资金从超过70亿英镑下降到约30亿英镑。[1]为了在未来十年内维持公共服务和福利支付，政府需要额外筹集240亿英镑。[1]经济增长率已被下调至1.1%，两年内因高能源价格导致的经济增长损失达280亿英镑。[1]英国总债务已攀升至近3万亿英镑，占年度国民收入的95%。[1]
NIESR经济学家David Aikman表示，"新的国防或家庭支持承诺应通过税收或其他地方的节省来资助，而不是进一步借贷"。[1]首相伯纳姆曾承诺到2035年提供NHS式免费成人社会护理，这项承诺的花费估计为18.5亿英镑。[1]分析人士指出，通胀预计将在2029年初才回落至英格兰银行2%的目标。[1]
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has cautioned that Britain's upcoming autumn budget will present the government with severe fiscal constraints due to fallout from the Iran conflict. [1] The think tank projects that inflation will climb to 3.8 percent over the next seven months, significantly reducing the funds available for new spending initiatives. [1]
According to NIESR's assessment, the fiscal headroom for the budget has contracted dramatically from over £7 billion to approximately £3 billion. [1] Meanwhile, the government faces the need to raise an additional £24 billion over the next decade to maintain public services and welfare payments, with economic growth forecasted at just 1.1 percent for both this year and 2027. [1] Higher energy prices are expected to cost the economy £28 billion in lost growth over two years. [1] The organisation warns that the government's commitment to providing free adult social care on the NHS model—estimated to cost £18.5 billion—will compound these pressures. [1] Inflation is unlikely to return to the Bank of England's 2 percent target until early 2029, and Britain's total debt has reached nearly £3 trillion, equivalent to 95 percent of annual national income. [1]
David Aikman of NIESR stressed that "new commitments to defence or support for families should be funded through taxation or savings elsewhere, rather than further borrowing." [1]