明尼苏达州成为美国首个颁布预测市场禁令的州，但该法律在生效前被联邦法院叫停。12联邦地区法官Katherine Menendez裁定，美国商品期货交易委员会、Kalshi和Polymarket可能会在诉讼中胜诉，因而禁止该州法律执行。1这项原定于8月1日生效的禁令遭遇挫折，标志着州政府试图监管快速增长的预测市场平台的最新失败。12
特朗普政府与Kalshi和Polymarket两大预测市场平台对明尼苏达州提起诉讼，理由是美国商品期货交易委员会对"事件合约交易"拥有独占管辖权。12诉讼方主张事件合约属于受联邦监管的金融工具。2明尼苏达州总检察长Keith Ellison则将预测市场定性为"赌博"。1根据美国商业游戏协会的估算，州政府因预测市场体育事件合约而损失超过12亿美元税收。1此前，联邦政府在2024年4月还对康涅狄格州、亚利桑那州和伊利诺伊州提起过类似诉讼。1
A federal judge has halted Minnesota's groundbreaking law banning prediction markets, just days before it was set to take effect on August 1st.12 Federal District Judge Katherine Menendez issued a preliminary injunction blocking the state law, ruling that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, along with prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, are likely to prevail in their legal challenge.12
The judge determined that enforcing the law would cause irreversible harm to the operating platforms.1 The central legal issue concerns whether event contracts constitute "swaps," a category of financial instruments under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction.2 The Trump administration joined Kalshi and Polymarket in suing Minnesota over the statute.2
Minnesota passed the legislation in May, making the state the first in the nation to attempt a comprehensive ban on prediction markets.2 Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison has characterized prediction markets as gambling.1 The American Gaming Association has estimated that states lose over $1.2 billion in tax revenue from prediction market trading on sporting events.1
This action reflects a broader pattern of federal intervention, with the federal government filing suits against Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois regarding prediction market regulation in April 2024.1
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