明尼苏达州成为美国首个颁布预测市场禁令的州，但该法律在生效前被联邦法院叫停。[1][2]联邦地区法官Katherine Menendez裁定，美国商品期货交易委员会、Kalshi和Polymarket可能会在诉讼中胜诉，因而禁止该州法律执行。[1]这项原定于8月1日生效的禁令遭遇挫折，标志着州政府试图监管快速增长的预测市场平台的最新失败。[1][2]
特朗普政府与Kalshi和Polymarket两大预测市场平台对明尼苏达州提起诉讼，理由是美国商品期货交易委员会对"事件合约交易"拥有独占管辖权。[1][2]诉讼方主张事件合约属于受联邦监管的金融工具。[2]明尼苏达州总检察长Keith Ellison则将预测市场定性为"赌博"。[1]根据美国商业游戏协会的估算，州政府因预测市场体育事件合约而损失超过12亿美元税收。[1]此前，联邦政府在2024年4月还对康涅狄格州、亚利桑那州和伊利诺伊州提起过类似诉讼。[1]
A federal judge has halted Minnesota's groundbreaking law banning prediction markets, just days before it was set to take effect on August 1st.[1][2] Federal District Judge Katherine Menendez issued a preliminary injunction blocking the state law, ruling that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, along with prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, are likely to prevail in their legal challenge.[1][2]
The judge determined that enforcing the law would cause irreversible harm to the operating platforms.[1] The central legal issue concerns whether event contracts constitute "swaps," a category of financial instruments under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction.[2] The Trump administration joined Kalshi and Polymarket in suing Minnesota over the statute.[2]
Minnesota passed the legislation in May, making the state the first in the nation to attempt a comprehensive ban on prediction markets.[2] Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison has characterized prediction markets as gambling.[1] The American Gaming Association has estimated that states lose over $1.2 billion in tax revenue from prediction market trading on sporting events.[1]
This action reflects a broader pattern of federal intervention, with the federal government filing suits against Connecticut, Arizona, and Illinois regarding prediction market regulation in April 2024.[1]