德国基尔世界经济研究所警告，莱茵河持续低水位可能导致德国第三季度经济产出下降0.1%-0.2%[1]。受长期干旱和高温天气影响，莱茵河水位不断下降，严重限制了内河船只的运载能力，仅为最大负荷的15%-20%[1]，进而推高运输成本，对欧洲最大经济体造成威胁。
莱茵河关键测量点卡乌布的水位已跌至30厘米，预计周五将进一步下降至约25厘米[1]，接近2018年10月创造的历史低位。基尔世界经济研究所表示："水位不太可能在8月初突然上升到临界值之上，运输能力可能在下个月持续受损"[1]。在正常经济条件下，长期中断将使工业活动在7月下降约0.8%[1]。
此外，莱茵河东岸铁路线因翻新工程关闭至12月12日[1]，进一步加剧了运输压力。经济学家预期今年夏季增长不超过0.2%[1]。
Germany's economic growth faces significant headwinds as the Rhine River's water levels continue to plummet, constraining crucial inland shipping capacity. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy projects that persistently low water conditions could reduce German third-quarter economic output by 0.1 to 0.2 percent [1]. Economists anticipate summer growth will not exceed 0.2 percent amid these conditions [1].
The crisis stems from prolonged drought and elevated temperatures that have steadily reduced water availability along Europe's most important commercial waterway. At the critical measurement point in Kaub, the water level has already dropped to 30 centimeters, with forecasts predicting a further decline to approximately 25 centimeters by Friday [1], approaching the historic low recorded in October 2018 [1]. This diminishment has severely restricted cargo capacity: inland vessels can now carry only 15 to 20 percent of their maximum load [1]. As Stefan Kooths observed, "water levels are unlikely to suddenly rise above critical thresholds in early August, meaning transport capacity may remain compromised through next month" [1].
The transportation bottleneck compounds existing challenges facing Europe's largest economy. Beyond river transport constraints, the Rhine's east-bank railway line has been closed for renovation work through December 12 [1]. Under normal economic circumstances, a prolonged interruption of this magnitude would reduce industrial activity by approximately 0.8 percent in July [1].