英伟达股价近日下跌近5%，市值降至4.77万亿美元，而苹果股价上涨超1%，以4.95万亿美元的市值重夺全球第一，这是苹果自2025年4月以来首次回到榜首位置[1]。市场对英伟达的担忧主要聚焦于其融资担保风险——英伟达计划为OpenAI提供约2500亿美元融资担保，相当于其626亿美元现金储备的4倍[1]。这种融资结构在市场上引发了对"循环融资"风险的担忧，英伟达五年期CDS盘中一度上涨约14个基点，升至每年约82个基点，创该合约自去年11月活跃交易以来的最大盘中涨幅[1]。
相比之下，苹果因采取轻资产的AI发展路径获得市场重估[1]。过去三个季度，苹果资本支出持续下降，倾向于租赁算力而非自建基础设施[1]。从年内表现看，苹果股价涨幅达24%，而英伟达2026年至今仅上涨4%[1]。与此形成对比的是，谷歌母公司Alphabet二季度资本支出翻倍至449亿美元，导致自由现金流跌至负59亿美元，这是Alphabet上市二十多年来的首次[1]。此外，甲骨文的融资成本也在上升，其五年期CDS从年初的144个基点上升至周一的215个基点，标普更是将其长期信用评级从BBB下调至BBB-[1]。
Nvidia's stock declined nearly 5 percent, bringing its market capitalization down to $4.77 trillion, while Apple surged over 1 percent to reclaim the world's largest market valuation at $4.95 trillion [1]. This marks Apple's first return to the top position since April 2025 [1].
The selloff of Nvidia reflects growing market anxiety about the artificial intelligence giant's financial exposure. Nvidia's five-year credit default swap spread surged during intraday trading, climbing approximately 14 basis points to around 82 basis points—marking the largest single-day move since the contract became actively traded in November of last year [1]. Market concerns center on Nvidia's plan to provide approximately $250 billion in financing guarantees to OpenAI, a commitment equivalent to four times its cash reserves of $62.6 billion [1]. Despite robust financial fundamentals—including 2026 fiscal year revenue of $215.9 billion, net profit of $120 billion, and free cash flow of $96.7 billion—investor sentiment has shifted toward caution [1].
The divergent trajectories of the two tech giants reflect contrasting capital strategies. Year-to-date, Nvidia's stock has gained only 4 percent, while Apple has climbed 24 percent [1]. Apple's outperformance stems from its adoption of a capital-light approach to artificial intelligence, prioritizing equipment rentals over building its own infrastructure, and demonstrating disciplined capital expenditure cuts over the past three quarters [1]. Meanwhile, other technology companies pursuing aggressive infrastructure buildouts have faced investor skepticism; Alphabet's second-quarter capital spending doubled to $44.9 billion, dragging its free cash flow into negative territory at negative $5.9 billion—a first for the company in over two decades since its public listing [1].