自2026年3月以来，伊朗在与美国停火谈判中采取攻击船只的压力战术，导致霍尔木兹海峡通航能力严重下降[1]。根据公开数据分析，战争期间至少84艘船只通过该海峡，与2025年同期的900艘相比下降幅度超过九成[1]。国际海事情报中心评估该地区通航威胁等级为"严重"，为最高级以下的第二级[1]。
尽管风险巨大，经济利益驱动下仍有多国船队冒险通行。来自阿联酋、印度、中国等国的油轮和货轮继续在该水域运输[1]。美国表示曾为约70艘船只提供过境支持，但其中并非全部船只都发送了信号[1]。然而，替代路线容量有限成为主要瓶颈。战前全球海运石油贸易约25%通过霍尔木兹海峡[1]，日均1500万桶原油依赖该航道运输[1]，而阿联酋的ADCOP管道和沙特的Petroline管道仅能改运400万桶/天[1]，无法弥补海峡关闭造成的供应缺口。受战争影响，布伦特原油价格已突破每桶80美元，呈上升趋势[1]。
Since March 2026, Iran has employed ship attacks as a negotiating tactic in ceasefire discussions with the United States, transforming the Strait of Hormuz into one of the world's most perilous shipping corridors [1]. Analysis of publicly available data reveals that only 84 vessels transited the waterway during the conflict period, a dramatic decline from approximately 900 ships recorded during the same timeframe in 2025 [1]. Despite the heightened risks, tankers and cargo vessels from the UAE, India, China, and other nations continue operations through the strait, driven by economic considerations [1].
The disruption carries significant global implications for energy security. Approximately 15 million barrels of crude oil typically flow daily through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 25 percent of global seaborne petroleum trade [1]. Alternative routes—including the UAE's ADCOP and Saudi Arabia's Petroline—possess combined capacity to redirect only 4 million barrels per day, creating a substantial supply shortfall should the strait remain impassable [1]. The Joint Maritime Information Center has assessed navigation threats at "severe," the second-highest alert level [1]. Brent crude oil prices have exceeded $80 per barrel amid the conflict and near-closure of the strait [1]. The United States reports having facilitated passage for approximately 70 vessels, though not all of them transmitted identifying signals [1].