Anthropic于周一公开其初始S-1上市申请草案，这一举动叠加谷歌和亚马逊财报不及预期，导致科技股市场大幅震荡 1。受此影响，谷歌股价在周四下跌12%，市值蒸发约5000亿美元，整个科技板块随后下跌10% 1。市场担忧的焦点在于Anthropic与亚马逊、谷歌、微软等巨头之间存在的非传统交叉持股、借贷及供应链依赖关系，这种紧密的“互联”结构使得大型科技公司的估值出现联动效应 1。
根据S-1文件披露的细节，谷歌持有的Anthropic股份体现了高达1170亿美元的未实现收益 1。亚马逊不仅向Anthropic提供了数百亿美元的可转换债务贷款，其条件还包含购买AWS云服务 1。此外，博通（Broadcom）为Anthropic担保了420亿美元的借款，并同时担任其供应商角色 1。值得注意的是，Anthropic的主要竞争对手——亚马逊、谷歌和微软，同时也是其核心分销商、投资者及债权人，这些公司销售了Anthropic约50%的产品 1。文中还指出，SpaceX的最大客户即为Anthropic 1。
除了具体的财务数据，文章提及了一项引人注目的说法：Anthropic去年亏损800亿美元，而亚马逊自由现金流为负420亿美元 1。尽管常规云业务数据显示谷歌云收入增长103%至每季度300亿美元，亚马逊云收入增长39%至每季度460亿美元，但上述巨额亏损数字加剧了市场对AI泡沫破裂及潜在宏观经济衰退的担忧 1。监管环境的变化也被视为推高投机性的因素之一，此前Lina Khan领导的FTC曾调查AI投资重叠问题，拜登司法部也曾要求谷歌剥离其在Anthropic的股份，但这些行动在特朗普政府时期被撤销 1。
Anthropic publicly filed its initial draft S-1 registration statement on Monday, an event that coincided with significant downturns in the broader technology sector. 1 Following this disclosure, Google shares plummeted by 12% on Thursday, erasing approximately $500 billion in market capitalization, while the entire tech segment subsequently declined by 10%. 1 The sharp drop is attributed not only to underperforming earnings reports from Google and Amazon but also to growing concerns over the complex financial interdependencies revealed in Anthropic’s filing. 1
Deep Cross-Holdings and Supply Chain Dependencies
The filing highlights intricate relationships between Anthropic and major tech incumbents, including Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, which simultaneously act as competitors, distributors, investors, and creditors. 1 These entities collectively account for the sale of roughly 50% of Anthropic’s products, creating a valuation structure where gains and losses are tightly linked across these firms. 1 Specifically, Google’s stake in Anthropic is recorded in the S-1 document as $117 billion in unrealized gains. 1 Furthermore, Amazon provides Anthropic with hundreds of billions of dollars in convertible debt loans, contingent upon the purchase of AWS cloud services. 1 Broadcom also plays a critical role, having guaranteed $42 billion in borrowings for Anthropic while serving as a key supplier. 1
Financial Performance and Regulatory Shifts
Market anxiety is compounded by specific financial metrics disclosed in the analysis, which claims Anthropic incurred an $80 billion loss last year and that Amazon reported negative free cash flow of $42 billion. 1 While these figures diverge significantly from standard accounting interpretations, they are cited as central to the narrative of potential AI bubble bursting and macroeconomic recession risks. 1 Conversely, cloud infrastructure remains a growth engine: Google Cloud revenue surged 103% to $30 billion per quarter, and Amazon’s cloud revenue rose 39% to $46 billion per quarter. 1 The regulatory environment has also shifted, contributing to increased speculation; previous antitrust actions under the Biden administration, such as the FTC investigation led by Lina Khan into overlapping AI investments and the DOJ’s demand for Google to divest its Anthropic shares, were revoked during the Trump administration. 1 Additionally, SpaceX is identified as Anthropic’s largest customer, further illustrating the tight-knit nature of the current AI ecosystem. 1
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