2026年，从利比亚北部经地中海前往希腊克里特岛的非法移民通道显著升温，已有近两万人尝试穿越该路线 1。这一趋势的加剧部分源于利比亚东部武装部队在2023年对通往意大利的传统走私路线实施打击，迫使人口走私网络调整策略，转而使用更小船只并改变目的地以规避执法 1。仅在今年10月20日单日，希腊当局就登记了来自14艘船的710名抵达者，显示出该走廊的高强度流动特征 1。
随着路线转移，偷渡费用高达4,000美元（约合3,600欧元），整个行程耗时约一天半 1。瑞士智库“全球反跨国有组织犯罪倡议”指出，原本从事毒品、车辆或货物运输的组织也已涉足人口走私行业，反映出该领域参与者的多元化 1。英国查塔姆研究所分析认为，利比亚持续的冲突与不稳定环境为移民走私提供了土壤，并进一步扩大了当地的“冲突经济” 1。在此背景下，当地权力掮客通过控制非正式市场来巩固政治影响力，而欧盟与利比亚各方的合作虽然在一定程度上遏制了移民潮，但也客观上强化了这些地方势力 1。
利比亚自2014年起陷入分裂，西部由联合国支持的的黎波里政府管辖，东部则受前军阀哈夫塔尔支持 1。根据国际移民组织基于今年5月和6月数据发布的报告，约有95万名移民和难民目前在利比亚登记居住 1。地缘政治紧张局势也在近期升级，10月下旬托布鲁克政府与土耳其签署了一项海上协议，但希腊拒绝承认该协议，声称其侵犯了希腊在克里特岛和罗德岛周边的经济权利 1。
Irregular migration from eastern Libya across the Mediterranean to Greece’s island of Crete has become a significant entry point into Europe, with nearly 20,000 people attempting this route in 2026 1. This surge reflects a strategic shift by smuggling networks following military crackdowns on traditional paths to Italy 1. On October 20 alone, Greek authorities registered 710 arrivals aboard 14 boats, illustrating the high volume of traffic through this corridor 1.
The diversion of migrant flows stems from actions taken by armed forces in eastern Libya, which targeted smugglers operating routes toward Italy starting in 2023 1. This pressure forced criminal networks to adopt smaller vessels and redirect destinations to Crete, where passage costs reach up to $4,000 (approximately €3,600) for a journey lasting about a day and a half 1. According to the Swiss think tank Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, groups previously involved in drug, vehicle, or cargo trafficking have entered the human smuggling business, indicating a diversification of illicit economies 1.
Chatham House, a British research institute, argues that Libya’s ongoing conflict and instability create an environment conducive to migrant smuggling while expanding what is termed a “conflict economy” 1. Since 2014, the country has been divided between the UN-backed government in Tripoli in the west and forces supported by former warlord Khalifa Haftar in the east 1. Local power brokers utilize control over informal markets to gain political influence, while cooperation between the EU and Libyan factions both curbs migration and strengthens local powers 1. In late October, the Tobruk-based government signed a maritime agreement with Turkey, a move rejected by Greece as infringing upon its economic rights near Crete and Rhodes 1. Meanwhile, data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), based on reports from May and June, indicates that approximately 950,000 migrants and refugees are registered residents in Libya 1.
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