随着美国总统特朗普暗示恢复与朝鲜领导人金正恩的会谈，首尔方面日益担忧美国在寻求外交突破时可能绕过韩国，甚至牺牲其安全利益。 123 特朗普预计将于11月18日在中国深圳举行的APEC峰会期间可能与金正恩会面，这一潜在行程加剧了盟友间的焦虑。 123 尽管特朗普曾声称他与金正恩“坠入爱河”，但韩国国家情报院证实，金正恩在与中共政治局成员在丹东会晤时讨论了与特朗普会面的可能性。 123 前国会议员金尚宇指出，目前两国政府之间存在信任问题，并认为特朗普急于会见金正恩是为了争取诺贝尔和平奖。 123
韩国专家警告称，最严重的担忧是美国将平壤承认为核大国，这将使朝鲜的核计划合法化并破坏不扩散体系。 13 孔州国立大学教授林恩贞还担心，美国可能允许朝鲜保留能打击韩日的短程导弹。 13 这种不安全感源于近期的军事紧张局势：上月朝鲜在边境埋设地雷导致三名韩国士兵受伤，而在德国总理默茨访韩前夕，周四朝鲜向日本海发射了约10枚短程弹道导弹。 13 在此背景下，德国总理弗里德里希·默茨访问韩国，呼吁中等强国联盟以应对单边主义，并强调欧洲与亚洲安全的联动性。 123 默茨表示：“韩国的安全影响欧洲的安全。欧洲的安全也影响韩国的安全。” 1
Seoul is growing increasingly concerned that the United States may bypass South Korean interests in its pursuit of a diplomatic breakthrough with North Korea, particularly amid indications that President Donald Trump intends to resume direct talks with Kim Jong Un. 12 Intelligence reports confirm that Kim recently discussed the possibility of meeting Trump during a visit to Dandong with senior Chinese Communist Party officials, while Trump has signaled openness to a summit potentially scheduled for November 18 at the APEC summit in Shenzhen. 12 The timing of these developments coincides with heightened tensions on the peninsula; last week, North Korea launched approximately ten short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan, just days before German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to South Korea. 13 In a separate incident last month, three South Korean soldiers were injured by mines planted by North Korea along the border. 3
Experts and former politicians warn that this dynamic erodes trust within the alliance, with some suggesting Trump’s eagerness to meet Kim is driven by personal ambitions, such as winning the Nobel Peace Prize. 23 Former lawmaker Kim Sang-woo stated that "there is currently a trust issue between the two governments," highlighting the fragility of the bilateral relationship. 1 Lim Eun-jung, a professor at Kongju National University, cautioned that the most severe risk would be if the US recognizes North Korea as a nuclear power, thereby legitimizing its arsenal and potentially allowing it to retain short-range weapons capable of striking South Korea and Japan. 13 This anxiety has fueled domestic debates in South Korea about developing an independent nuclear deterrent. 23
During his visit, German Chancellor Merz emphasized the interconnectedness of security in Europe and Asia, stating, "South Korea's security affects Europe's security. Europe's security also affects South Korea's security." 13 He called for alliances among middle powers to counter unilateralism, reflecting broader global anxieties about shifting geopolitical norms. 1 Notably, Trump has previously claimed he "fell in love" with Kim Jong Un, underscoring the personal nature of the potential diplomacy that worries Seoul. 3 Meanwhile, the US has proposed trilateral talks involving Russia and China regarding Ukraine without inviting Kyiv, a move that further complicates traditional alliance structures and contributes to Seoul's fears of being marginalized. 2
评论
还没有评论，欢迎留下第一条。