波茨坦气候影响研究所（PIK）的一项新研究证实，自2015年左右以来，全球变暖速度显著加快 1。数据显示，过去十年的升温速率约为每十年0.35°C，几乎是1970年至2015年平均速度的两倍 1。在排除自然因素（如厄尔尼诺、火山爆发、太阳活动）后，确认该结论的统计置信度超过98% 1。
这项由Stefan Rahmstorf和Grant Foster主导的研究发表于《地球物理研究快报》 1。研究团队分析了五个主要全球温度数据集，包括NASA、NOAA、HadCRUT、Berkeley Earth和ERA5，结果一致显示变暖加速 1。如果此趋势持续，地球可能在2030年前突破《巴黎协定》设定的1.5°C长期升温限制 1。
A new study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) confirms that global warming has accelerated significantly since approximately 2015 1. The research indicates that the rate of temperature increase over the past decade is about 0.35°C per ten years, nearly double the average speed recorded between 1970 and 2015 1. Led by Stefan Rahmstorf and Grant Foster, the findings were published in Geophysical Research Letters on October 29, 2026 1.
The conclusion holds a statistical confidence level exceeding 98% after researchers analyzed five major global temperature datasets, including those from NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, and ERA5 1. These results remained consistent even after accounting for natural factors such as El Niño events, volcanic eruptions, and solar activity 1. If this current trajectory continues, the long-term warming limit of 1.5°C established by the Paris Agreement could be breached before 2030 1.
评论
还没有评论，欢迎留下第一条。