2026年10月27日，以色列第25届议会选举计票接近完成时 1，内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团联盟获得53个席位，反对派领袖加迪·艾森科特领导的联盟获得48个席位 145。组建多数政府需至少61个席位，目前双方均未达到这一门槛 15。尽管利库德集团在得票数上领先，但无法单独组阁 2，此次选举未产生绝对赢家 13。在此背景下，两个主要阿拉伯政党合计赢得了创纪录的19个席位 145，成为决定下一届政府组成的关键少数力量 4。具体而言，联合名单（Joint List）获11席，Ra'am党获8席 5。
针对未出现明显胜者的局面，预计未来几周将进行艰难的组阁谈判 1。总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格已启动磋商程序，并强调各方必须尽一切努力避免重新举行选举 15。希伯来大学的一项民调显示，反对派阵营选民最支持的方案是由艾森科特与Ra'am党组成少数派政府，并争取联合名单在外部支持 4。此外，民主党及阿拉伯联合名单等政治力量正在探讨其他可能的组阁路径 3。官方最终计票结果定于11月4日公布 15，新议会的宣誓就职仪式定于11月10日举行 6。截至报道时间，仍有约43万至48万张缺席选票（即“双信封”选票）处于最后清点阶段，占总票数的近10% 15。
选举结束后，围绕投票公正性的争议迅速升温。内塔尼亚胡及其利库德集团指控存在大规模外国干预（声称由卡塔尔和土耳其主导）以及阿拉伯政党的舞弊行为 14。对此，以色列警方表示没有证据支持利库德集团的指控 1。代理中央选举委员会总干事迪恩·利夫尼明确回应称，“没有依据支持关于系统性违反选举诚信的指控” 4。卡塔尔外交部否认干涉以色列选举，将相关指责称为“荒谬且危险”，并批评这是虚假宣传 14。联合国人权高专沃尔克·蒂尔克则呼吁下一届以色列政府“大幅改变路线”并尊重国际法 1。
分析指出，内塔尼亚胡面临失去权力的风险 36，因此加剧了对阿拉伯政党的攻击以施压或争取支持 6。艾森科特谴责内塔尼亚胡正在进行一场“有组织、有计划的运动以抹黑选举结果” 4。虽然辛贝特安全局曾介入调查所谓非法资金，但最终并未发现足以推翻选举结果的违规证据 4。
With nearly 99% of votes counted in the October 2026 Israeli parliamentary election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc secured a lead with 53 seats, while opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s camp won 48 seats 15. Neither side achieved the 61-seat threshold required to form a stable majority government, leaving the nation in a coalition-building stalemate 15. The final official results are scheduled for publication on November 4, though some sources indicate the vote count has been completed 156. A new Knesset is set to be sworn in on November 10 6.
Arab political parties emerged as decisive "kingmakers" by winning a record-breaking 19 seats combined, including 11 for the Joint List and 8 for Ra’am 145. This surge has made them pivotal to any potential governing coalition, with discussions ongoing between Democrats and Arab factions regarding government formation options 23. While Likud won the most individual votes among all parties, it cannot govern alone, intensifying debates over three possible paths to a new administration 2. Polling from the Hebrew University suggests that voters in the opposition camp prefer a minority government led by Eisenkot and Ra’am, supported externally by the Joint List 4.
Netanyahu and his allies have accused Arab parties of stealing the election through alleged foreign interference funded by Qatar and Turkey 14. However, Israeli police and the Central Elections Committee rejected these claims, stating there is no evidence of systemic violations or fraud 14. Dean Livne, acting director-general of the Central Elections Committee, explicitly noted that allegations of compromised electoral integrity lack basis 4. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry denied the accusations, labeling them “absurd and dangerous,” while Opposition Leader Eisenkot condemned Netanyahu’s actions as an organized campaign to delegitimize the election results 4.
Amidst the uncertainty, President Isaac Herzog urged all parties to avoid forcing another election and pledged to begin consultations to resolve the deadlock 15. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk called on the next Israeli government to significantly change its course and respect international law 1. As absentee ballots—estimated at 430,000 to 480,000, representing nearly 10% of the total—are still being processed, political analysts note that Netanyahu faces a significant risk of losing power due to the failure to secure a majority 135.
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