英国财政研究所（IFS）发出警告称，新任财政大臣约翰·希利最新发布的预算案未能覆盖高达280亿英镑的公共财政缺口，这为明年实施所谓的“残酷”支出审查铺平了道路 1。受中东战争引发的通胀飙升和能源冲击影响，希利推迟了关于整体部门支出的重大决策，导致在2030-31年度前可能需要大幅削减公共服务或增加税收，以避免回归紧缩状态 1。尽管政府承诺不回归紧缩政策，但专家质疑其在缓冲空间有限的情况下履行这一承诺的能力，并预测这将引发对增税的有害猜测 1。
据IFS分析，若要在避免紧缩的前提下维持现状，非保护性政府部门在2030-31年度的支出计划可能需要额外增加170亿英镑 1。此外，为实现国防开支占国内生产总值比例提高至3%的承诺，还需额外投入110亿英镑 1。目前希利手中仅剩150亿英镑的缓冲空间，这消耗了其前任蕾切尔·里夫斯留下的236亿英镑缓冲资金的部分额度 1。IFS所长海伦·米勒指出，明年的支出审查可能对某些部门构成“残酷”打击 1。
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned that Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey’s latest budget fails to cover a £28 billion gap in public finances, paving the way for what is expected to be a “brutal” spending review next year 1. This shortfall arises amidst inflationary pressures and energy shocks triggered by the war in the Middle East, which have forced the government to defer major decisions on overall departmental spending 1. Consequently, unprotected departments may need an additional £17 billion in spending plans by the 2030-31 fiscal year to avoid returning to austerity, while another £11 billion is required to fulfill commitments to raise defense spending to 3% of GDP 1.
Healey currently holds only £15 billion in fiscal headroom, having utilized part of the £23.6 billion buffer left by his predecessor, Rachel Reeves 1. Helen Miller, director of the IFS, stated that the upcoming spending review could deliver severe cuts to certain government departments 1. Although the government has pledged not to return to austerity, experts are questioning its ability to uphold this promise given the limited financial margin, predicting that this uncertainty will fuel harmful speculation about future tax increases 1.
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