当前用于指导联合国主要气候报告的模型大多未包含由升温引发的额外温室气体排放等正反馈效应，这一“盲区”可能导致本世纪全球平均气温在现有预测基础上进一步上升 1。最新发表在《Environmental Research Letters》9月刊的研究指出，解冻永冻土、加剧野火等因素释放的额外二氧化碳和甲烷，可能使全球平均气温在本世纪内额外升高0.2°C至0.4°C 1。目前模型已预测到2100年全球将比工业化前水平升高2.6°C，而新发现的反馈效应意味着实际升温风险可能被低估 1。
除了绝对温度的上升，这些被忽略的排放源还将显著缩短实现温控目标的时间窗口 1。发表在《One Earth》3月刊的一项独立分析显示，仅考虑永冻土融化、北方森林火灾和热带湿地这三个区域性变暖驱动排放源，就可能使突破1.5°C和2°C阈值的时间提前最多25% 1。Spark Climate Solutions的气候科学家Sam Abernethy作为相关论文的主要作者，强调了更新模型以纳入这些反馈机制的重要性 1。
为应对这一挑战，科学界和产业界正在采取多种措施 1。已有超过20个国际团队参与“变暖诱导温室气体排放模型比较项目”，旨在为2029年的联合国下一次主要气候评估提供数据支持 1。与此同时，Woodwell Climate Research Center正在研究预防野火或快速检测扑灭以保护富含碳的永冻土楔块 1。初创企业也在探索抑制高纬度闪电引发火灾、在永冻土上铺设合成垫防止融化以及部署自主无人机灭火等技术 1。尽管有诸多技术手段，科学家仍强调减少化石燃料依赖是遏制此类“自加速”变暖的最有效途径 1。
Current climate models, which serve as the foundation for major United Nations reports, largely fail to incorporate additional greenhouse gas emissions triggered by rising temperatures themselves. These omissions create a significant blind spot that could underestimate global warming and accelerate the timeline for breaching critical temperature thresholds 1. Research published in Environmental Research Letters in September found that extra carbon dioxide and methane released by factors such as thawing permafrost and intensifying wildfires may raise the global average temperature by an additional 0.2°C to 0.4°C during this century 1. This new projection sits atop existing model forecasts that already predict a 2.6°C rise above pre-industrial levels by 2100 1.
The impact of these unmodeled feedbacks is further highlighted by an independent analysis in One Earth, published in March, which indicated that accounting for just three regional emission sources—permafrost, boreal forest fires, and tropical wetlands—could shorten the window before exceeding the 1.5°C and 2°C targets by up to 25% 1. Sam Abernethy, a climate scientist at Spark Climate Solutions and lead author of related papers, emphasizes that reducing dependence on fossil fuels remains the most effective strategy to curb this "self-accelerating" warming 1. To address these gaps, more than 20 international teams are participating in a model intercomparison project aimed at supporting the next major UN climate assessment scheduled for 2029 1. Meanwhile, innovative mitigation efforts are underway; the Woodwell Climate Research Center is investigating methods to prevent or rapidly extinguish wildfires to protect carbon-rich permafrost wedges, while startups explore technologies ranging from suppressing high-latitude lightning-induced fires to laying synthetic mats over permafrost and deploying autonomous drones for firefighting 1.
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