2026年11月3日，美国选民将投票决定国会参众两院及州长职位的归属 1。鉴于现任总统特朗普的支持率处于历史低位，分析认为民主党有望夺取众议院多数席位，从而制约共和党的立法议程 1。专家J. Miles Coleman指出，中期选举往往被视为“对在任总统及其政党的公投” 1。
目前众议院席位分布为共和党218席、民主党214席、无党派1席及空缺2席，这意味着民主党需要再赢得4个席位才能获得多数地位 1。在参议院方面，共和党占据53席，民主党拥有45席，另有2名通常投民主党票的无党派议员；副总统JD Vance在平票时拥有最终决定权 1。本次选举的关键看点包括得克萨斯州的参议员竞选，以及可能诞生美国历史上首位黑人女性州长的竞争 1。民调显示，得克萨斯州民主党人James Talarico与共和党人Ken Paxton支持率持平 1。而在明尼苏达州和佐治亚州，候选人Lisa DeMuth或Keisha Lance Bottoms若当选，将成为美国首位黑人女性州长 1。
Voters in the United States will head to the polls on November 3, 2026, to decide control of both chambers of Congress and several governorships 1. Analysts suggest that Democrats may capture a majority in the House of Representatives given President Trump’s historically low approval ratings, which could serve as a check on the Republican legislative agenda 1. J. Miles Coleman noted that midterm elections often function as a referendum on the sitting president and their party 1.
Currently, Republicans hold 218 seats in the House, while Democrats have 214, with one independent member and two vacancies; Democrats need to gain four more seats to secure a majority 1. In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats compared to the Democrats’ 45, along with two independents who typically caucus with Democrats, though Vice President JD Vance retains the tie-breaking vote 1. Key contests include the Texas Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, where polling shows them tied 1. Additionally, the gubernatorial races in Minnesota and Georgia are watched closely, as Lisa DeMuth or Keisha Lance Bottoms could become the first Black female governors in U.S. history if elected 1.
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