DemosAU最新MRP民调结果显示，澳大利亚工党在众议院150个席位中仅获得68席，远低于获得多数所需的76席[1]。与此相对，一国党领先赢得60席，而联盟党获得13席[1]。根据这一民调，一国党和联盟党若联合执政，将共获73席，足以超过工党[1]。
该民调调查了9,343名受众，于5月27日至7月11日期间进行[1]。与1月至3月的前次民调相比，工党席位下降15席，一国党上升8席，联盟党上升4席[1]。在国家初选层面，一国党支持率领先30%，工党为26%，联盟党为21%，绿党为13%，其他党派占10%[1]。
Morgan民调（7月13日至19日）的结果显示，工党支持率为27.5%，联盟党为23%，一国党为22.5%，绿党为14%，其他党派为13%[1]。南澳、塔斯马尼亚和澳大利亚首都地区的选区划分已最终确定，共影响150个众议院席位中的18个[1]。
A specialized polling analysis has revealed a stark electoral challenge for Australia's Labor Party. According to a DemosAU MRP poll conducted between May 27 and July 11, Labor would secure only 68 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, falling well short of the 76 seats required for a parliamentary majority [1]. The poll, which surveyed 9,343 respondents, indicates a decline of 15 seats compared to the previous polling period from January to March [1].
The projection suggests a potential change in government composition, with One Nation and the Coalition parties positioned to form an alternative administration. One Nation would hold 60 seats, up 8 seats from the prior poll, while the Liberal-National Coalition would claim 13 seats, an increase of 4 seats [1]. Combined, One Nation and the Coalition would command 73 seats, enabling them to govern [1]. In terms of primary vote support, One Nation leads with 30%, followed by Labor at 26%, the Coalition at 21%, the Greens at 13%, and other parties at 10% [1].
The polling data comes amid ongoing electoral redistribution, with final determinations for South Australia, Tasmania, and the Australian Capital Territory affecting 18 of the 150 House seats [1]. A separate Morgan poll conducted from July 13 to 19 showed a different vote distribution, with Labor at 27.5%, the Coalition at 23%, One Nation at 22.5%, the Greens at 14%, and other parties at 13% [1].
