2026年10月27日，以色列举行议会选举 3。初步计票结果显示政治僵局持续，现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导的联盟与前军方总参谋长加迪·艾森科特领导的反对派阵营均未获得组建政府所需的61个绝对多数席位（总席位120席）358。截至当地时间中午12:30，超过84.5%的选票已清点完毕，由内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德党联盟以微弱优势领先，预计获得53至54席，而艾森科特的“国家责任党”（Yashar）及盟友预计获得47至48席 368。尽管双方均宣称拥有组阁主导权，但出口民调及实时数据表明没有任何一方取得压倒性胜利 145。
此次选举中，阿拉伯政党获得了历史性的强劲支持，预计合计赢得19个议会席位，创历史新高 13678。具体而言，联合名单（Joint List）赢得至少12个席位，Ra'am党赢得7个席位 6。这一结果使阿拉伯政党成为打破僵局的潜在“造王者”，部分反对派领导人如民主党领袖亚伊尔·戈兰（Yair Golan）提议与阿拉伯政党合作以组建新政府 3。然而，主要竞争对手立场强硬：内塔尼亚胡在耶路撒冷集会中强调不能组建依赖巴勒斯坦或阿拉伯政党支持的政府，并依靠阿拉伯政党支持是“叛国”行为 36；艾森科特则呼吁内塔尼亚胡辞职，声称公众投票旨在结束其任期，并排除与巴勒斯坦政党建立广泛联盟的可能性 236。由于双方均拒绝违背竞选承诺进行直接合作，重新选举被视为可能的前景之一 7。
本次选举投票率达到数十年来最高水平，约为77.7%，近80%的国防军士兵参与投票 23678。此外，约7万名海外以色列人回国投票 7。最终结果预计在周四公布，目前仍有约43万至65万张缺席选票（主要来自士兵和外交官）等待统计，这部分票数可能影响约14个席位的分配，从而决定最终的政治格局 368。总统赫尔佐格已启动组阁磋商程序，若无法形成稳定联盟，将可能导致新一轮选举 8。值得注意的是，唐纳德·特朗普表示，他的背书帮助内塔尼亚胡的表现优于民调预期 6。
Israel’s 2026 parliamentary election has resulted in a political stalemate, with neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main challenger, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, securing the 61 seats required for an absolute majority in the 120-seat Knesset 38. As of the latest partial counts, with more than 85% of votes tallied, Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc holds a slim lead with approximately 53–54 seats, while Eisenkot’s opposition coalition trails slightly with 47–48 seats 368. The final results are expected on Thursday after the remaining absentee ballots from soldiers and diplomats—estimated at between 430,000 and 650,000 votes—are processed, which could potentially shift about 14 seats and alter the balance of power 368.
The Arab minority parties have emerged as pivotal kingmakers in this close contest, achieving a historic surge in support that defied previous predictions 12. Parties including the Joint List and Ra'am are projected to win a combined total of 19 seats, the highest number ever secured by Arab-affiliated factions 367. This unprecedented voting strength, coupled with the overall turnout reaching its highest level in decades (between 77.7% and nearly 80%), has left both major Jewish-led camps without a clear path to government formation 2368. While Eisenkot declared a "Zionist majority" and asserted that voters rejected Netanyahu’s continued leadership, the Prime Minister remains defiant, claiming his bloc won a "huge majority" and warning against forming any government dependent on Arab party support 2368.
The deadlock sets the stage for complex coalition negotiations or a potential return to the polls, echoing Israel’s recent history of five elections between 2019 and 2022 7. President Isaac Herzog has initiated consultations to determine which leader can form a stable government, but options remain limited due to mutual refusals between the secular-nationalist opposition and religious-right factions 8. Some figures within the opposition camp, such as Yair Golan of the Democratic Party, have floated the possibility of including Arab parties in a coalition to unseat Netanyahu, a move vehemently opposed by Eisenkot and dismissed by Netanyahu as treasonous 368. Conversely, Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen has called for a Jewish-Arab partnership to overthrow the current administration, highlighting the deep ideological divides that complicate any post-election arrangement 3. With Donald Trump’s endorsement reportedly helping Netanyahu exceed poll expectations, the final determination of power rests heavily on whether opposition leaders will breach their campaign pledges to exclude Arab parties from government-building efforts 6.
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