英国财政大臣约翰·希利发布了2026年首个预算案,旨在通过一系列短期支持措施和长期改革来缓解生活成本危机并应对全球不确定性12。为减轻“全球经济风暴”的影响,政府宣布向处于市政税(Council Tax)A-D档的约2000万户家庭发放每人100英镑的一次性能源补贴,预计总成本为26亿英镑12。此外,电力账单的增值税减免期限将延长至明年7月,预计可使每户每年的价格上限减少50英镑12。同时,原定由前财政大臣蕾切尔·里夫斯提出的燃油税上涨计划被取消,燃油税实现连续第16年冻结12。
在资助上述民生支出方面,希利宣布对银行利润征收的额外税款(暴利税)税率从当前的3%翻倍至6%,该政策为期15个月,自1月起生效12。针对房东和储蓄者,所得税率将增加2个百分点2。为了进一步缓解消费者压力,政府还取消了包括烤豆、巧克力在内的超过100种产品的进口关税1。小企业及零售、酒店和休闲行业的商业税率减免门槛也将从12,000英镑提高至18,000英镑12。个人储蓄账户(ISA)的免税额度恢复至20,000英镑,此前拟降至12,000英镑的计划被搁置1。
受伊朗战争导致的高通胀影响,今年的债务利息支出预计将增加140亿英镑12。预算责任办公室(OBR)下调了明年的GDP增长预期,从春季预测的1.6%降至1%2。根据OBR的预测,今年GDP增长率为1.2%,随后几年将逐步回升至2029年的1.8%和2030年的1.7%1。在财政纪律方面,预计政府借款占GDP的比例将从今年的4.2%降至明年的3.4%,并在2030-31财年进一步降至1.8%1。希利承诺将在2029-30年度实现当前支出与税收收入的平衡,但指出财政空间已从之前的240亿英镑缩减至150亿英镑2。
除了家庭支持,预算案还涉及国防、科技及地方权力下放等关键领域。国家财富基金和英国商业银行将获得额外的204亿英镑资金注入1。人工智能安全与安保方面的支出将增加5亿英镑1。在国防投资上,政府设定了明确目标,计划在2030年将国防支出提升至GDP的3%,并于2035年达到3.5%1。此外,到本十年末,100%的商业费率收入将由地方政府保留,以推动地方经济增长1。
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey has announced his first budget, framing it as a response to "global economic storms" and emphasizing fiscal discipline amidst rising borrowing costs. 12 To provide immediate relief to households, the government will issue a one-off £100 payment to approximately 20 million families in Council Tax bands A-D, an initiative costing an estimated £2.6 billion. 12 This support is designed to help navigate high inflation and energy prices, which Healey attributed in part to global conflicts impacting oil markets. 2
The funding for these measures includes significant changes to tax policies, most notably the doubling of the bank profits levy from 3% to 6% for a period of 15 months, effective from January. 12 Additionally, income tax rates for landlords and savers have been increased by two percentage points. 2 On the household front, fixed charges on gas bills will be scrapped for 23 million homes, expected to save each family around £45 annually. 1 The VAT cut on electricity bills will be extended until July next year, maintaining a reduction in price caps worth £50 per year, while fuel duty will remain frozen for the 16th consecutive year. 12 Furthermore, import tariffs on over 100 goods, including baked beans and chocolate, have been eliminated. 1
Economic forecasts within the budget reflect a challenging environment, with debt interest payments projected to rise by £14 billion this year due to higher inflation linked to geopolitical tensions. 12 The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has downgraded its growth forecast for next year to 1%, revised down from 1.6% in the spring prediction. 2 Longer-term GDP growth is projected at 1.2% for the current year, followed by 1% next year, before rising to 1.6% in 2028 and peaking at 1.8% in 2029. 1 Government borrowing as a share of GDP is expected to fall from 4.2% this year to 3.4% next year, and further to 1.8% by 2030-31. 1 Healey stated that he aims to balance current spending with tax revenue by the 2029-30 fiscal year, although fiscal headroom has shrunk to £15 billion, down from £24 billion previously. 2
Strategic investments were also outlined to support long-term growth and security. The National Wealth Fund and the UK Infrastructure Bank will receive an additional £20.4 billion in capital. 1 In the defense sector, spending targets have been set to reach 3% of GDP by 2030 and 3.5% by 2035, alongside an extra £500 million allocated specifically for AI safety and security. 1 For businesses, the threshold for small business rate relief has been raised from £12,000 to £18,000, primarily benefiting retail, hospitality, and leisure sectors. 12 Individual savings accounts (ISAs) will see their tax-free allowance restored to £20,000, reversing a previous proposal to lower it to £12,000. 1 Finally, the budget commits to ensuring that 100% of commercial rates income is retained locally by the end of the decade, promoting decentralized economic growth. 1
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