根据中国国家统计局发布的数据，中国人口结构出现标志性转变。2023年，中国老年人口抚养比（相对于工作年龄人口）上升至23%，首次超过同期为22%的儿童抚养比 1。这一数据变化反映了该国日益严峻的老龄化趋势，其中65岁及以上人口规模已超过2.23亿，占总人口比例接近16%，而14岁及以下儿童数量约为2.13亿 1。《环球时报》指出，这一里程碑标志着中国进入“中度老龄化社会” 1。
独生子女政策（1980年至2015年底）被认为是导致年轻人口减少的关键因素之一 1。专家警告称，这种结构性转变预计将对养老金、医疗体系及经济增长产生深远影响，同时也增加了公共支出压力 1。与此同时，针对老年群体的“银发经济”正在发展，截至2025年底，已有超过5300万老年人领取高龄津贴和补贴 1。
China has reached a historic demographic milestone where the elderly dependency ratio has surpassed the child dependency ratio for the first time, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics 1. In 2023, the proportion of people aged 65 and above relative to the working-age population rose to 23%, exceeding the 22% share accounted for by children aged 14 and under 1. This structural shift highlights the deepening reality of China’s aging society, with over 223 million seniors now constituting nearly 16% of the total population, compared to approximately 213 million young children 1.
The Global Times characterized this development as a marker of China’s entry into a "moderately aged society," while experts warn that the trend will constrain economic growth and increase pressure on public expenditure systems, including pensions and healthcare 1. The decline in the youth population is partly attributed to the one-child policy, which was enforced from 1980 until the end of 2015 1. Meanwhile, the government reported that more than 53 million elderly citizens were receiving age-related allowances and subsidies by the end of 2025, underscoring the expanding fiscal burden associated with this demographic transition 1.
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