来自斯坦福大学、拉筹伯大学和澳大利亚国立大学的研究人员通过战争游戏模拟，评估了澳大利亚应对印度洋海运威胁的能力。[1]模拟结果表明，即使是印度洋中部发生的单次成功攻击，也可能造成保险战争风险溢价升高、运输路线改变或商业流量撤出，从而严重扰乱整个地区的贸易。[1]这项研究的紧迫性在于，澳大利亚99%的全球贸易依赖海运完成。[1]
该战争游戏邀请了来自澳大利亚、印度、美国和日本的九名前资深军事和防务官员参与为期两天的模拟演练。[1]研究发现，澳大利亚目前的国防战略主要聚焦东北印度洋，而对更广阔的印度洋地区关注不足。[1]同时，中国通过在巴基斯坦或吉布提等国的港口使用权，可能延长其潜艇在该地区的活动时间。[1]战争游戏进一步凸显了澳大利亚对美国海军力量的高度依赖。[1]研究强调，澳大利亚需要加强与美国和印度的合作，以保护其关键的海上贸易路线。[1]
Researchers from Stanford University, La Trobe University, and the Australian National University have conducted war game simulations to assess Australia's capacity to respond to threats against maritime commerce in the Indian Ocean.[1] The findings highlight significant vulnerabilities in a region critical to Australia's economic security, with 99 percent of the country's global trade conducted by sea.[1]
The two-day war game exercise involved nine former senior military and defense officials from Australia, India, the United States, and Japan.[1] The simulation revealed that even a single successful attack on shipping in the central Indian Ocean could trigger substantial regional disruptions, including elevated insurance war risk premiums, altered shipping routes, or withdrawal of commercial traffic.[1] The researchers emphasize that Australia's current defense strategy focuses primarily on the northeastern Indian Ocean rather than addressing vulnerabilities across the entire ocean region.[1]
The study underscores Australia's substantial reliance on U.S. naval capabilities for maritime security.[1] Additionally, the war game findings suggest that China's port access in countries such as Pakistan and Djibouti could extend the operational reach of its submarines in the region.[1] Researchers stress the need for Australia to strengthen cooperation with the United States and India to protect its critical sea trade routes.[1]
