2026年以色列议会选举的出口民调显示，现任总理内塔尼亚胡所在的联盟预计将显著小于反对派阵营，但没有任何一方能够获得组建多数政府所需的120个席位中的61席 1。这一僵局使得下一届政府的形成过程变得异常复杂，最终的组阁结果取决于各党派之间漫长的利益交换与妥协，预计可能需要数月时间才能尘埃落定 1。此次选举中统计难度的增加也是导致预测充满不确定性的因素之一，今年有61.8万名新选民首次参与投票，另有65万名预备役人员及外交官通过“双重信封”方式投票，这部分人群难以被传统民调准确覆盖 1。
在具体的组阁程序上，总统艾萨克·赫尔佐格将根据各政党的推荐名单决定授权谁作为候选人尝试组建政府，目前迹象表明反对派领导人艾森科特可能率先获得这一机会 1。然而，艾森科特的组阁之路面临内部阻力，核心争议点集中在超正统派（Haredi）男性的兵役豁免法案以及阿拉伯政党是否应进入执政联盟 1。尽管拉阿姆党（Ra'am）领导人曼苏尔·阿巴斯表达了加入无内塔尼亚胡联盟的意愿，但这一提议遭到了艾森科特阵营中锡安主义政党的明确反对 1。如果两轮总统授权均无法成功组建政府，议会将进入第三轮为期21天的组阁尝试；若最终仍告失败，则不得不重新举行大选 1。
Exit polls from the 2026 Israeli general election indicate that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s alliance nor the opposition bloc has secured the 61 seats required to form a majority government in the 120-member Knesset 1. The results suggest that Netanyahu’s coalition will be significantly smaller than the opposition camp, leading to a fragmented parliament where no single group holds an automatic mandate to govern 1. This outcome complicates the path forward, as the final seat counts may differ slightly from initial projections due to difficulties in accurately polling 618,000 new voters and 650,000 reservists and diplomats who cast ballots via “double envelopes” 1.
Presidential Mandate and Coalition Challenges
The formation of the next government now depends on President Isaac Herzog, who must decide whom to authorize based on recommendations from political parties 1. Current indications suggest that Eisenkot is likely to receive the first opportunity to negotiate a coalition 1. Key obstacles to forming a stable government include disagreements over the exemption of ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) men from military service and the potential inclusion of Arab parties in a governing coalition 1. Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra'am party, has expressed willingness to join a coalition without Netanyahu, but this stance faces internal resistance from Zionist parties within the broader opposition alliance 1.
Procedural Timeline and Potential Outcomes
If the authorized candidate fails to assemble a majority, the president may extend the mandate to another party leader. Should two rounds of presidential authorization fail to produce a government, the Knesset would enter a third round of negotiations lasting 21 days 1. Failure to secure a majority during this final window would trigger a snap election, meaning the current deadlock could persist for several months as parties engage in intricate interest exchanges and compromises 1.
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