2026年世界杯将在北美举办，FIFA曾承诺赛事实现碳中和，但迄今未公布官方排放数据。[1]研究人员通过建立计算机模型对此进行了独立评估，预测赛事碳足迹约为320万吨CO₂当量。[1]这一预测低于FIFA原始投标时估计的370万吨CO₂当量，后者基于80场比赛的假设。[1]
实际赛事规模已有所扩大，共计划举办104场比赛，预计吸引近700万观众，这几乎是1994年美国世界杯的两倍人数。[1]研究发现，航空旅行是碳排放的主要来源，占比接近90%。[1]与2022年卡塔尔世界杯相比，2026年北美赛事的单位观众碳排放量有所降低——每位观众平均相当于2900公里的汽车行驶排放量，而卡塔尔赛事这一数字为6500公里。[1]
独立机构的预测数据差异较大。[1]科学伦理责任组织预测排放量达900万吨CO₂当量，而Greenly的预测为780万吨CO₂当量。[1]研究模型中采用的42%国际旅客比例是影响最终结果的关键变量，最终的实际排放数据预计将在8月由美加墨边境机构公布。[1]
Researchers have constructed a computer model to estimate the carbon footprint of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America after the organization failed to release official emissions data, despite pledging carbon neutrality for the tournament [1]. The independent analysis projects approximately 3.2 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent will be generated by the event, which falls below the original bid estimate of 3.7 million tonnes despite a significant expansion in scope [1].
The 2026 World Cup will feature 104 matches across North America—substantially larger than the original 80-match projection—and is expected to draw nearly 7 million spectators, nearly double the attendance at the 1994 U.S. World Cup [1]. Air travel accounts for approximately 90 percent of the projected emissions, making transportation the dominant environmental factor [1]. The research team's estimate assumes 42 percent of international attendees will travel by air, with final calculations dependent on audience travel data that organizers plan to release in August [1].
On a per-spectator basis, the 2026 tournament is projected to generate emissions equivalent to approximately 2,900 kilometers of car travel per attendee, a substantial reduction compared to the 2022 Qatar World Cup's 6,500-kilometer equivalent [1].
