2026年10月27日，以色列举行议会选举，尽管投票率创下历史新高，但初步结果显示没有任何阵营获得组建政府所需的绝对多数席位 1。多家媒体发布的出口民调存在显著差异，部分数据显示反对派联盟仅以微弱优势领先，导致新政府的组成和总理人选目前仍不明朗 235。由于缺乏明确的赢家，阿拉伯政党可能成为决定组阁成败的关键力量，最终计票结果预计要到周三才能正式确定 1。
在具体席位分布方面，出口民调预测由前军方参谋长加迪·艾森科特领导的反内塔尼亚胡联盟获得53席，而支持现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的右翼及极右翼联盟获得50至51席，两者均未达到61个议会的多数门槛 126。值得注意的是，内塔尼亚胡所属的利库德党虽未获整体多数，但预计将以25席成为单一最大政党 1256。不同来源对民调结果的解读存在分歧：除主流出口民调外，非主流网络发布的三项民调结果差异巨大，其中一项甚至预测内塔尼亚胡阵营可获得60席 3。
此次选举中，巴勒斯坦及阿拉伯政党的崛起被视为重塑以色列政治版图的重要因素，合计预计获得17席 145。这一结果给反对派领袖艾森科特带来核心困境：若不与阿拉伯以色列人合作组建政府，可能导致内塔尼亚胡继续掌权；但若选择合作，他又将此结果称为“以色列犹太复国主义多数”的胜利 4。此外，中央选举委员会拒绝了利库德党延长投票时间的请求，而截至当天下午6点，全国投票率已达66.7% 1。
Israelis voted in record numbers on October 27, 2026, for the 26th Knesset, but exit polls suggest a political deadlock with no bloc securing the necessary majority to form a government 1. The anti-Netanyahu coalition led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot is projected to win 53 seats, narrowly ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc, which holds an estimated 50 to 51 seats 1256. However, both alliances fall short of the 61-seat threshold required for a stable governing majority 15. While Netanyahu’s Likud party remains the largest single party with approximately 25 seats, the overall composition of the parliament prevents any immediate path to power for either main contender 1256.
The unprecedented voter participation included high engagement from Arab citizens, leading Palestinian and Arab parties to secure a combined 17 seats, a figure that significantly alters the political landscape 1245. Among these, the Ra'am party is projected to hold seven seats, potentially positioning it as a critical "kingmaker" in coalition negotiations 1. Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot described the outcome as a victory for Israel's Zionist national majority but acknowledged that forming a government might require cooperation with Arab Israeli factions, or else risk preserving Netanyahu’s hold on power 4. This rise in minority representation challenges traditional opposition strategies and underscores the fragmented nature of the current election result 45.
Discrepancies between different exit poll sources highlight the uncertainty of the final outcome. While mainstream media outlets report a slight lead for the opposition bloc, some non-mainstream projections have diverged wildly, with one survey estimating Netanyahu’s camp at 60 seats 3. Reuters has noted that these conflicting indicators point toward a likely parliamentary stalemate 3. Official results are not expected until Wednesday, leaving the country facing a potential prolonged period of coalition bargaining 1. Additionally, the Central Elections Committee rejected a request from the Likud party to extend voting hours, emphasizing the strict adherence to procedural timelines despite the close race 1. Key issues influencing the vote included the impact of the Gaza war, judicial reform controversies, and the role of artificial intelligence in campaigning 1.
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