定于11月3日举行的美国中期选举将改选众议院全部435个席位、参议院约三分之一席位以及36个州长职位 1。受总统任期第二半段规律及特朗普支持率下滑影响，共和党在众议院可能失去控制权；尽管参议院争夺尚存悬念，但民主党有望在多个传统共和党优势州取得突破 1。
权威预测人士查理·库克（Charlie Cook）指出，民主党横扫众议院是“板上钉钉”，预计民主党将净增至少5个、最多30个众议院席位 1。相比之下，民主党若要夺回参议院控制权，需净增4个席位，这取决于约7个关键摇摆州的竞争结果 1。目前，特朗普的支持率在50个州中的47个州处于水下（低于50%），且有48%的美国人表示自2025年特朗普重返办公室以来财务状况恶化 1。
在选民动员方面，近一半（48%）2024年支持卡玛拉·哈里斯的选民对此次投票表现出极高热情，而特朗普支持者中这一比例不足三分之一，显示双方在投票意愿上存在显著差距 1。尽管埃隆·马斯克向共和党团体捐赠超过2.5亿美元，使共和党持有明显的财务优势，但这未能抵消其基本盘的情绪劣势 1。若民主党成功重夺国会多数席位，将能够限制特朗普的行政权力，具体措施包括启动调查、阻止提名、立法限制总统令资金，甚至引发第三次弹劾程序 1。
The upcoming United States midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, will see the entire House of Representatives’ 435 seats, approximately one-third of the Senate, and 36 governorships up for grabs. 1 Political analyst Charlie Cook has described a potential Democratic sweep of the House as a "done deal," projecting that Democrats could net between five and thirty additional seats in the lower chamber. 1 Meanwhile, regaining control of the Senate remains more uncertain, requiring Democrats to win a net gain of four seats through contests in roughly seven key swing states. 1
Republican prospects are clouded by declining support for President Trump, whose approval rating is underwater—below 50 percent—in 47 of the 50 states. 1 Economic dissatisfaction appears to be a significant factor, with 48 percent of Americans reporting that their financial situation has worsened since Trump returned to office in 2025. 1 Voter enthusiasm also skews toward the opposition; nearly half (48 percent) of voters who supported Kamala Harris in 2024 are very enthusiastic about voting in this election, compared to fewer than one-third of Trump supporters. 1 Although Elon Musk has donated over $250 million to Republican groups, providing them with a clear financial advantage, these structural disadvantages suggest that if Democrats recapture congressional majorities, they may pursue investigations, block nominations, restrict funding for executive orders, or even initiate impeachment proceedings. 1
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