2026年10月27日星期二，以色列举行自2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击以来的首次大选，主要竞争者为现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡与前国防军总参谋长、中间派政党“Yashar”领导人加迪·艾森科特 12。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普公开介入选情，在线发帖称内塔尼亚胡为“战士总理”，并警告若以色列选出除“比比”（即内塔尼亚胡）以外的领导人，美国将不得不独自处理伊朗问题，但他表示不愿亲自出手 12。然而，特拉维夫国家安全研究所（INSS）研究员拉兹·齐姆特和丹尼·西特里诺维奇分析认为，无论选举结果如何，以色列左右翼在对伊朗威胁的认知上差异微小，军事升级的决定权更多掌握在华盛顿手中而非耶路撒冷 12。
局势的紧张程度部分源于此前未遂的军事行动。据《金融时报》报道，以色列军方曾计划于10月10日左右对伊朗核设施等目标发动新一轮攻击，但特朗普出于对11月3日美国中期选举影响的担忧而反对此次升级 12。海牙地缘政治研究所研究员达蒙·戈尔里兹指出，美以对伊政策可能涉及移除政权领导人、摧毁工业基础设施或利用库尔德和俾路支分离主义势力肢解伊朗等多个方向 1。与此同时，中东媒体研究中心（MEMRI）研究员纳维德·图比安强调，2023年的袭击已使以色列放弃了对伊朗进行“有限且有管理”接触的策略，形成了跨党派的强硬共识 1。
作为回应，路透社援引伊朗高级安全官员消息称，德黑兰方面已制定报复计划，包括切断波斯湾及霍尔木兹海峡的海底光纤电缆，并打击该地区依赖美国的数据中心和AI基础设施 12。这一对抗态势使得近期短暂的外交窗口迅速关闭，六个月前在伊斯兰堡签署的一份框架文件曾约定伊朗总统同意不主动对以色列发动战争或军事行动，但该协议未能持续生效 12。整体来看，以色列社会对伊朗核威胁的恐惧加剧，使得国内政治变动难以从根本上扭转其对外强硬立场，冲突走向最终仍取决于美国的战略抉择 1。
Israel heads to the polls on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, marking its first general election since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023. 12 The main contenders are incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff leading the centrist "Yashar" party. 12 Despite the change in leadership dynamics, analysts suggest that Israel’s hardline stance against Iran is unlikely to shift fundamentally regardless of the election outcome. 12 This consensus stems from the strategic pivot away from "limited and managed" engagement following the 2023 attacks, which intensified societal fear of the Iranian nuclear threat across both left and right wings of Israeli politics. 12
The trajectory of potential military escalation depends more heavily on Washington than on Tel Aviv. 12 Raz Zimmt and Danny Citrinovitch from the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) argue that while internal perceptions of the Iranian threat are uniform, the decision to escalate rests with the US President rather than the Israeli Prime Minister. 12 US President Donald Trump has openly endorsed Netanyahu as a "warrior prime minister," warning in an online post that if Israel elects anyone other than "Bibi," the United States would be forced to handle the Iran issue alone, a scenario he stated he was unwilling to pursue. 12 Reports indicate friction between the two allies regarding timing: the Israeli military reportedly planned strikes on Iranian targets around October 10, but Trump opposed this escalation due to concerns over the upcoming November 3 US midterm elections. 12
Regional security experts outline three potential directions for US-Israeli policy toward Tehran: removing regime leaders, destroying industrial infrastructure, or leveraging Kurdish and Baloch separatist groups to fragment Iran. 1 Damon Golriz of the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies notes that a diplomatic framework signed six months ago in Islamabad briefly offered a window where Iran agreed not to initiate war, though this opportunity has since closed. 12 Meanwhile, Tehran appears to be preparing for conflict; Reuters cited senior Iranian security officials stating that plans for retaliation have been formulated, including cutting submarine fiber optic cables in the Persian Gulf and striking US-dependent data centers and AI infrastructure in the region. 12
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