前澳大利亚驻美大使乔·霍基（Joe Hockey）分析指出，共和党在即将到来的美国中期选举中面临严峻挑战，预计将在众议院遭遇“惨败”，并有“很大机会”失去参议院的控制权 1。他认为，非强制性投票制度下选民的不投票行为是共和党面临的最大威胁，而生活成本、关税政策以及对伊朗问题是左右选情的主要议题，其中关税问题在密歇根州和威斯康星州尤为关键 1。
针对特朗普可能失去国会控制权的情况，霍基预测其不会感到不安，反而认为特朗普更擅长在有敌人的情况下表现，敌对国会可能让他加倍投入决策并更具攻击性 1。他进一步推断，这种政治压力可能促使特朗普升级对伊朗的军事与经济施压，例如实施导弹袭击和经济挤压，但绝不会在美国本土部署地面部队 1。此外，霍基强调，上述潜在行动不会改变11月初前的柴油价格 1。
Former Australian Ambassador to the United States Joe Hockey analyzed the potential consequences of a Republican loss in the upcoming US midterm elections, predicting that President Donald Trump will not be unsettled by losing control of Congress. 1 Hockey stated that Republicans are expected to suffer a "shellacking" in the House of Representatives and face a "very good chance" of losing their Senate majority. 1 He identified the cost of living as the primary issue for voters, followed by tariffs—particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin—and concerns regarding Iran. 1
Hockey noted that under non-compulsory voting systems, supporters failing to vote poses the greatest threat to Republicans, though he clarified that this outcome does not remove Trump from office after January 4. 1 Regarding the President’s governance style post-election, Hockey argued that Trump performs better when facing an adversary, suggesting that a hostile Congress might drive him to make more aggressive decisions. 1 Specifically, Hockey predicted that Trump would likely escalate military pressure on Iran through measures such as missile strikes and economic squeeze following the midterms, but emphasized that the President would never deploy US ground troops ("boots on the ground"). 1 The former ambassador added that these anticipated actions are unlikely to alter diesel prices before early November. 1
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