巴西左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在2026年10月25日的总统选举第二轮决选中击败极右翼对手弗拉维奥·博索纳罗，赢得其历史性第四个任期 123。根据计票结果，卢拉以51.79%的得票率（约6420万张选票）战胜获得48.21%选票（约5980万张）的博索纳罗，领先优势超过400万张 123。这一胜利使卢拉成为自民主回归以来，首位在第一轮投票中落败却最终通过决选获胜的候选人 13。相比首轮选举，卢拉在第二轮中至少多获得了1000万张选票 1。
胜选后，卢拉发表演说，宣称“民主永远，独裁不再；民主永远，法西斯不再” 1。他在演讲中誓言抵制美国影响，批评Meta涉嫌干预选举，并承诺加强对大型科技平台的监管 2。尽管社交媒体渠道（如WhatsApp）和学生主导的抗议活动被认为是推动卢拉逆转胜的关键因素 4，但对手弗拉维奥·博索纳罗拒绝承认败选 123。博索纳罗称卢拉的胜选为“废话”，并以最高法院法官延长两小时投票时间为由，要求废除选举结果 12。此前，卢拉曾向盟友表示不解为何在其认为表现最好的政府任期结束后仅排第二，而分析人士当时普遍预计其他候选人的900万张选票将主要流向博索纳罗 4。
博索纳罗拒不认输的态度引发金融市场剧烈波动，圣保罗证券交易所因股指暴跌近17%触发熔断机制，暂停交易30分钟 2。当日美元兑巴西雷亚尔汇率飙升12%，巴西石油公司股价下跌超过20% 2。与此同时，国际社会普遍认可卢拉的胜利，德国总理默茨、俄罗斯总统普京、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩、西班牙首相桑切斯、墨西哥总统辛鲍姆以及中国国家主席特使等多国领导人纷纷致电或发表声明祝贺 12。前环境部长玛丽娜·席尔瓦警告称，若博索纳罗当选将加剧亚马逊雨林的破坏 1。目前，弗拉维奥·博索纳罗面临联邦警察关于洗钱等多项调查，其父雅伊尔·博索纳罗已因政变未遂获刑27年 1。
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a historic fourth term in office after defeating far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff election 123. The leftist incumbent secured victory with 51.79% of the vote, compared to his rival’s 48.21%, marking the first time since the end of the military dictatorship (1964–1985) that a candidate who lost the first round successfully reversed the outcome in the second 123. Lula gained at least 10 million more votes than he received in the initial round, overcoming an early disadvantage where analysts predicted that 9 million ballots from eliminated candidates would primarily flow to Bolsonaro 124. This reversal was driven significantly by student-led protests and mobilization on social media platforms like WhatsApp, which countered Bolsonaro’s expected consolidation of right-wing support 4.
In his victory address, Lula declared, "Democracy always, dictatorship never again. Democracy always, fascism never again," emphasizing his commitment to democratic principles 1. He also vowed to resist U.S. influence and pledged stricter regulation of major tech platforms, specifically criticizing Meta for alleged interference in the electoral process 2. Despite these assurances, Flávio Bolsonaro refused to concede defeat, describing Lula’s win as "sacanagem" (nonsense or rubbish) and calling for the annulment of results based on claims that Supreme Court judges extended voting hours by two hours 123. Bolsonaro faces multiple federal police investigations for money laundering, while his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, is serving a 27-year sentence for attempted coup 1.
The political uncertainty triggered immediate financial market volatility, with the São Paulo stock exchange halting trading for 30 minutes after its index plunged nearly 17%, while the U.S. dollar surged 12% against the Brazilian real and Petrobras shares dropped over 20% 2. International leaders largely recognized Lula’s victory, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese officials, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen extending congratulations 12. Former Environment Minister Marina Silva had previously warned that a Bolsonaro presidency would exacerbate deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, highlighting the environmental stakes of the election 1.
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