以色列议会选举与美国国会中期选举即将相继举行，两场投票的时间节点与政策走向将对中东局势及全球经济产生深远影响 1。选民将于周二前往以色列投票站，而美国民众则在一周后参与中期选举 1。值得注意的是，约50万持有美国护照的以色列公民具备参与两项选举的资格，预计有1万名缺席选票将来自以色列，这一变量可能左右密歇根州等关键席位的归属 1。
此次选举的核心背景是自2月起美以对伊朗发动的空袭行动 1。尽管打击摧毁了军事目标并造成领导层伤亡，但未能推翻政权 1。作为反击，伊朗控制了霍尔木兹海峡，导致全球能源供应紧张 1。在此背景下，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡试图通过宣扬再次攻击伊朗的可能性来恢复因10月7日袭击受损的安全领袖声誉；若败选，他将面临调查和诉讼风险 1。美国总统特朗普公开支持内塔尼亚胡，并暗示若新政府由他人领导，美国将独自应对伊朗威胁 1。据报特朗普私下曾阻止选举前实施袭击，以防油价飙升影响中期选举 1。与此同时，特朗普为降低能源价格解除对俄制裁并试图解决乌克兰问题未果，而民主党候选人如Abdul El-Sayed和Brad Lander则批评对以色列的军事援助或行动 1。分析指出，若民主党控制国会，可能限制对以色列的军事拨款；反之，若特朗普获胜且处于“遗产模式”，可能在选举后加大军事行动力度 1。
Voters in Israel will cast their ballots on Tuesday, followed by American voters a week later, marking two elections with significant geopolitical implications 1. Approximately 500,000 Israelis holding dual citizenship are eligible to participate in both polls, with an estimated 10,000 absentee votes originating from Israel expected to potentially influence key seats in states such as Michigan 1. These electoral timelines intersect against the backdrop of military operations conducted by the United States and Israel against Iran since February, which destroyed various military targets and resulted in leadership casualties but failed to overthrow the Iranian regime 1. In response, Iran has asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz, leading to tightened global energy supplies 1.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is leveraging his campaign to promote the possibility of renewed strikes on Iran, aiming to restore his reputation as a security leader damaged by the attacks on October 7; a loss in the election could expose him to investigations and lawsuits 1. Donald Trump has publicly supported Netanyahu, suggesting that the United States would face the threat from Iran alone if a new Israeli government is led by someone else 1. Reports indicate that Trump privately halted pre-election strikes to prevent oil price spikes from adversely affecting midterm results 1. Economically, Trump attempted to lower energy prices by removing sanctions on Russia and seeking a resolution to the Ukraine conflict without success 1. Democratic candidates, including Abdul El-Sayed and Brad Lander, have criticized military aid or actions related to Israel 1. Potential outcomes include congressional restrictions on funding for Israel if Democrats take control, whereas a Trump victory might lead to intensified military action post-election if he enters a "legacy mode" 1.
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