据能源智库Ember数据显示，全球太阳能发电量在2025年首次略超核能 1。截至2026年9月的前12个月统计表明，太阳能产量已比核能多出13% 1。自2000年以来，核能发电量保持相对平稳，而同期太阳能发电量增长了约2700倍 1。太阳能在全球电力结构中的占比预计将从2010年代的1%上升至2026年的近10% 1。国际能源署（IEA）预测，到2030年太阳能发电量将是2025年的两倍，并成为世界第三大电力来源 1。
这一转变主要受成本大幅下降和中国大规模制造能力驱动 1。2020年太阳能已成为历史上最便宜的电力来源 1。目前面板价格远低于100美元（约75英镑），使用寿命可达30-40年 1。中国在太阳能制造规模上居世界首位，其产能过剩压低了模块价格 1。尽管中国去年改变了新太阳能装置的管理和支持制度可能导致2026年全球扩张速度首次放缓，但排除中国后安装量仍在增加 1。美国作为第二大太阳能安装国，尽管有关税限制，太阳能仍能满足超过三分之一家庭的需求 1。
在新兴市场和应用场景方面，巴基斯坦太阳能发电占比从2019年的不足2%上升至目前的24% 1。非洲国家每天安装约10万个太阳能电池板，部分源于柴油价格上涨及电网不可靠 1。加州在2026年上半年晚间高峰时段（19:00-21:00）平均超过四分之一的电力需求由太阳能和电池满足 1。尽管面临电网整合和季节性存储的挑战，随着电池存储技术的进步以及化石燃料供应的不稳定性，太阳能正在加速取代化石燃料并推动电气化进程 1。
Global solar power generation surpassed nuclear energy in 2025 for the first time, according to data from the energy think tank Ember 1. Preliminary figures covering the twelve months through September 2026 indicate that solar output exceeded nuclear production by 13% 1. This milestone marks a dramatic shift in the global energy landscape, driven largely by steep declines in solar panel costs and massive manufacturing capacity in China 1. Since 2000, while nuclear generation has remained relatively flat, solar output has increased approximately 2,700-fold 1. In the 2010s, solar accounted for just 1% of global electricity, but this share is projected to reach nearly 10% by 2026 1.
Drivers of Growth and Market Dynamics
Solar energy became the cheapest source of electricity in history in 2020, with current panel prices falling well below $100 (approximately £75) and expected lifespans of 30 to 40 years 1. China’s dominant position in solar manufacturing has further depressed module prices through excess capacity 1. Despite tariff restrictions, the United States remains the second-largest market for solar installations, capable of meeting over one-third of household demand 1. Emerging markets are also rapidly adopting solar technology; Pakistan’s solar generation share rose from less than 2% in 2019 to 24% currently, while African nations install about 100,000 solar panels daily due to rising diesel costs and unreliable grids 1.
Future Outlook and Challenges
The International Energy Agency predicts that solar generation will double by 2030 compared to 2025 levels, establishing it as the world’s third-largest electricity source 1. In California, solar and battery storage met more than a quarter of average evening peak demand (19:00–21:00) during the first half of 2026 1. However, challenges remain regarding grid integration and seasonal storage 1. The pace of global solar expansion may slow in 2026 for the first time due to changes in China’s management and support systems for new installations, although deployment continues to increase when excluding China 1.
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