复旦大学与香港大学学者奚锡灿、周林硕在《国际经济评论》发表研究，指出超低生育率的深层原因并非单纯源于女性工资上涨，而是相对于“谁该带孩子”这一社会规范的变化，女性收入增长过快导致错配 1。这种错配通过家庭内部谈判机制，将不成比例的养育负担压在母亲身上，推高养育孩子的“影子价格”，从而压低生育率 1。
作为全球低生育率的典型案例，韩国2018年总和生育率首次跌破1.0，并于2023年降至0.72，位居全球倒数第一 1。相比之下，维持人口稳定所需的世代更替水平为2.1 1。早在2006年，David Coleman就曾预警，韩国可能因持续的低生育率成为首个因自然人口减少而消失的国家 1。
New research by scholars from Fudan University and the University of Hong Kong suggests that ultra-low birth rates are not solely caused by rising female wages, but rather by a structural mismatch between women’s income growth and evolving social norms regarding who should care for children 1. The study, published in the International Economic Review by Xi Xican and Zhou Linshuo, argues that when women’s earnings increase faster than societal acceptance of men sharing domestic duties, mothers bear a disproportionate burden through internal household negotiations 1. This imbalance inflates the "shadow price" of raising children, thereby suppressing fertility rates 1.
The findings provide context for South Korea’s demographic crisis, where the total fertility rate plummeted to 0.72 in 2023, marking the lowest globally and continuing a steep decline since falling below 1.0 in 2018 1. For perspective, the replacement level required to maintain a stable population is 2.1 1. The severity of such trends echoes a 2006 warning by David Coleman, who predicted that South Korea could become the first nation to disappear due to natural population decrease driven by persistently low birth rates 1.
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