BBC Sport邀请多位足球专家预测2024年男子金球奖得主。尽管博彩公司眼中的热门人选包括西班牙新星拉明·亚马尔和英格兰队长哈里·凯恩，且巴黎圣日耳曼球员也有竞争力，但专家观点存在分歧 1。部分人支持亚马尔因世界杯夺冠及影响力，部分人认为凯恩的进球数据更应获奖，还有人主张PSG的克瓦拉茨赫利亚才是最佳表现者 1。金球奖将于10月26日在伦敦揭晓 1。
主要候选人及其入选理由如下：
- 拉明·亚马尔 (Lamine Yamal)：随西班牙赢得世界杯，随巴塞罗那赢得西甲；被指具有“光环”和观赏性，尽管世界杯表现未达巅峰 1。Guillem Balague认为非PSG或西班牙球员不可能获奖，看好亚马尔 1。Julien Laurens、Stephen Warnock以及Rory Smith虽个人倾向不同，但均预测亚马尔会赢 1。
- 哈里·凯恩 (Harry Kane)：为拜仁慕尼黑和英格兰队打进73球；带领拜仁赢得德甲和德国杯双冠王；欧冠半决赛进14球，世界杯半决赛进6球 1。Alan Shearer、Danny Murphy明确支持凯恩，Andros Townsend也基于详细数据支持凯恩 1。
- 克瓦拉茨赫利亚 (Khvicha Kvaratskhelia)：被视为上赛季欧洲最佳球员，帮助PSG卫冕欧冠冠军；但在决赛罚丢点球，且格鲁吉亚未参加世界杯导致选票可能分散 1。Julien Laurens和Stephen Warnock个人首选克瓦拉茨赫利亚，Rory Smith个人也倾向于他 1。
其他提及的候选人包括基利安·姆巴佩 (Kylian Mbappe)、莱昂内尔·梅西 (Lionel Messi) 和迈克尔·奥利塞 (Michael Olise) 1。
BBC Sport has solicited predictions from multiple football experts regarding the winner of the 2024 men's Ballon d'Or, revealing significant disagreement despite clear frontrunners in betting markets 1. The ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26 1. While Spanish teenager Lamine Yamal and England captain Harry Kane are considered strong contenders, alongside Paris Saint-Germain players, pundits offer varying justifications for their preferred candidates based on individual achievements and team successes 1.
The debate centers largely on whether international tournament victory or club performance statistics should carry more weight. Guillem Balague argues that only a player from PSG or Spain can realistically win, backing Yamal due to his "aura" and role in winning the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona, noting however that the youngster’s World Cup impact was not at its peak 1. Conversely, Alan Shearer, Danny Murphy, and Andros Townsend firmly support Harry Kane, citing his extraordinary goal-scoring record of 73 goals for Bayern Munich and England 1. They highlight Kane's contribution to Bayern's domestic double (Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal) and his prolific scoring in the Champions League semifinals (14 goals) and World Cup semifinals (6 goals) as decisive factors 1.
Other experts point toward Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, whom Julien Laurens, Stephen Warnock, and Rory Smith regard as Europe’s best player last season for helping PSG retain the European championship 1. However, they acknowledge potential hurdles: Warnock and Smith personally favor Kvaratskhelia but predict Yamal will win because the World Cup trophy heavily influences voters 1. Laurens also predicts Yamal as the ultimate winner despite his personal preference for the Georgian winger 1. Concerns about vote splitting are raised, as Kvaratskhelia missed a penalty in the final and Georgia did not qualify for the World Cup, potentially dispersing support 1. Additional names mentioned include Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi, and Michael Olise 1.
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