距离11月3日美国中期选举仅剩8天，最新民调数据显示，民主党在争夺国会控制权方面占据显著优势。统计表明，民主党赢得参议院控制权的概率为75%，而在众议院获胜的概率高达95% 1。此外，在通用民调中，民主党对共和党的领先幅度达到9.5个百分点 1。
与此同时，美国总统特朗普的支持率持续下滑，其净支持率降至-23.3，这一数值被指是杜鲁门以来任何总统在任期此阶段所录得的最低水平 1。具体而言，60.2%的受访者不赞成特朗普的表现，仅有36.9%表示赞成 1。在经济议题上，特朗普的净支持率为-32.6，而在通胀问题上的净支持率更是低至-46.0 1。外交政策方面，尽管66%的受访者对乌克兰表示同情，但45%的人认为特朗普更同情俄罗斯 1。
能源价格波动被视为影响选情的重要经济因素。目前美国汽油平均价格为每加仑4.29美元，布伦特原油价格已升至每桶116.72美元，创下伊朗战争期间的最高纪录 1。分析指出，若伊朗冲突持续冲击经济，导致油价在中期选举前进一步上涨，共和党可能遭受重大损失 1。本次中期选举将改选众议院全部435个席位以及参议院的35个席位 1。作为对比，2024年大选后，共和党以220席对215席的优势控制众议院，并在参议院以53席对47席保持多数地位 1。
With just eight days remaining before the November 3 midterm elections, latest polling data indicates that Democrats are clear favorites to regain control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress. The Democratic Party holds a 95% probability of securing a majority in the House and a 75% chance of winning the Senate 1. This projected victory is underpinned by a generic ballot poll where Democrats lead Republicans by 9.5 percentage points 1. These figures suggest a significant shift from the post-2024 election landscape, where Republicans held a narrow 220-215 majority in the House and a 53-47 advantage in the Senate 1.
The momentum for the Democratic party appears driven largely by President Trump’s declining approval ratings, which have hit historic lows for this stage of a presidency since Harry Truman. Trump’s net approval rating stands at -23.3, with 60.2% of respondents disapproving of his performance compared to 36.9% who approve 1. Dissatisfaction is particularly acute regarding economic issues, where Trump’s net approval is -32.6, and inflation, where it drops further to -46.0 1. Additionally, public sentiment on foreign policy has turned against the administration; while 66% of those surveyed sympathize with Ukraine in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, 45% believe Trump sides with Russia 1.
Economic pressures, specifically rising energy costs, are expected to continue impacting voters’ decisions leading up to the election. The average price of gasoline in the United States has reached $4.29 per gallon, while Brent crude oil prices have surged to $116.72 per barrel, marking the highest level during the Iran conflict 1. Analysts warn that if the war in Iran continues to adversely affect the economy, the Republican party could face substantial losses in the upcoming contests for all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats 1.
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