全球发展中心的一项最新研究指出，英国预计将在2027年底前未能实现对外援助支出达到国民收入0.3%的目标，届时资金缺口预计在4亿至5.8亿英镑之间 1。根据该机构的数据模型，英国实际援助支出比例可能仅维持在0.28%至0.29%，这一状况被全球发展中心高级研究员伊恩·米切尔描述为“对英国援助支出能力的重大短缺” 1。研究人员呼吁政府在本周公布的预算中增加对国际援助的拨款，以避免未能达标带来的尴尬局面 1。
这一预测基于英国官方发展援助（ODA）预算的持续缩减趋势。数据显示，2025年英国官方发展援助预算占国民总收入的比例为0.44%，较2024年的0.5%下降了约9.87亿英镑 1。进一步分析表明，最新数据反映出的援助预算分配中，流向最不发达国家和低收入国家的资金减少了6.7%，折合金额约为1.18亿英镑 1。这种资金削减被认为将对非洲等地区的脆弱国家造成严重影响 1。
在政治层面，各政党对援助政策的立场存在显著差异。尽管工党在其选举宣言中曾承诺维持0.7%的援助占比，但首相基尔·斯塔默已将该目标下调至0.3%，以便为增加国防开支腾出空间 1。与此同时，保守党和改革英国党计划采取更为激进的紧缩措施，拟将年度援助预算从目前的约90亿英镑大幅削减至10亿英镑 1。
Research by the Overseas Development Institute indicates that the UK is on track to miss its target of spending 0.3% of national income on overseas aid by the end of 2027, with a projected funding gap estimated between £400 million and £580 million 1. This shortfall would result in actual spending reaching only 0.28% to 0.29% of national income, falling short of the government's stated commitment 1. Ian Mitchell, a senior researcher at the institute, described the situation as "a significant shortfall" in Britain’s capacity for aid expenditure 1. The findings have prompted calls for the Treasury to increase allocations for international assistance in this week’s budget to avoid the embarrassment of missing the target 1. Researchers also warned that failing to plug the gap will have severe consequences for vulnerable nations in Africa 1.
The projected deficit follows significant reductions in recent years; while the 2025 official development assistance budget was set at 0.44% of gross national income, this represented a £987 million decrease from the 0.5% level recorded in 2024 1. Current data reveals that funding directed towards the least developed and low-income countries has already dropped by 6.7%, amounting to a reduction of £118 million 1. Although the Labour Party’s election manifesto originally promised 0.7% of national income for aid, Prime Minister Keir Starmer subsequently lowered this pledge to 0.3% to prioritize increased defense spending 1. Meanwhile, opposition parties including the Conservatives and Reform UK have proposed plans to drastically cut annual aid budgets from approximately £9 billion down to £1 billion 1.
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