针对网络流传的孟加拉湾气旋将“撞击喜马拉雅山脉”并给西藏带来特大暴雪的说法，中国气象局于2026年10月25日晚间组织专家进行辟谣，明确指出该传言不实。1气象部门介绍，虽然该热带低压将于10月26日发展为气旋风暴，最强可达特强气旋风暴级（风力相当于12至13级台风），并预计于28日白天以强气旋风暴或特强气旋风暴级强度在印度东部沿海登陆，但当其靠近喜马拉雅山脉时，强度已减弱为微弱的残余涡旋。1因此，“气旋撞击喜马拉雅”不符合实际气象规律，气旋主体也不可能翻越该山脉。1
关于西藏南部10月30日至31日的明显雨雪天气，其成因并非气旋直接冲击，而是由北上的风暴环流输送暖湿水汽与地形迎风抬升共同作用触发。1具体预报显示，10月30日至31日西藏中东部将迎来明显雨雪，其中山南、日喀则、拉萨等地有中到大雪或雨夹雪，而西藏南部边境部分区域将出现暴雪到大暴雪，新增积雪深度达5至25厘米。1
The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) convened experts on the evening of October 25 to refute social media claims that a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal would "hit" the Himalayan mountain range and trigger extreme blizzards in Tibet. 1 The agency clarified that such narratives are inaccurate, noting that by the time any storm approaches the Himalayas, it will have already weakened into a residual vortex with minimal intensity. 1 According to the CMA, the main body of a tropical cyclone cannot cross the Himalayas. 1
Forecasts indicate that the tropical depression in the Bay of Bengal is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm by October 26, potentially reaching very severe cyclonic storm levels, equivalent to Category 12-13 typhoon winds. 1 The system is projected to make landfall along India's eastern coast during the day on October 28 as a severe or very severe cyclonic storm. 1 While the storm itself will not breach the mountain barrier, significant precipitation is anticipated for central and eastern Tibet from October 30 to 31. 1 Regions including Shannan, Shigatse, and Lhasa are expected to experience moderate to heavy snow or sleet. 1 Parts of southern border areas may see blizzard conditions with new snow accumulation ranging from 5 to 25 centimeters. 1
The CMA attributed these heavy weather events to the combined effect of warm, moist air masses transported northward by the storm’s circulation and their subsequent lifting against the terrain, rather than a direct collision of the cyclone with the mountains. 1
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