巴西将于周日举行总统第二轮投票，现任总统卢拉与右翼参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗展开激烈竞争12。卢拉为80岁1，弗拉维奥·博索纳罗为45岁12。首轮投票中，博索纳罗领先超过220万票3，但历史上从未有过首轮落后的候选人在第二轮逆转获胜1。决选前的民调显示两人势均力敌2。
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗是前总统贾伊尔·博索纳罗的儿子，其父亲因2022年试图推翻选举结果而被判处27年监禁，目前处于软禁状态2。弗拉维奥承诺如若当选将赦免其父亲，同时表示将"改变宪法，重新民主化这个国家"2。卢拉则强调此次选举关系到民主制度本身，表述"人民要的是向前发展，不是倒退"1。政治学家指出，虽然卢拉在首轮竞选中未能有效与民众联系，但民间社会运动推动了他的支持率上升2。约1.59亿名合格选民将参与投票2，当选总统需获得超过50%的选票3。
Brazil held a presidential runoff election on Sunday between incumbent leftist President Lula and right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 12. The 80-year-old Lula faced the 45-year-old Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, in a closely contested race that would shape the nation's political direction 123.
Flavio Bolsonaro entered the runoff with an advantage, leading Lula by more than 2.2 million votes in the first round of voting held on October 4 3. However, historically no candidate trailing after the first round has ever reversed the outcome in a runoff 1. According to political scientist Hermínia da Silva Teles, while Lula's campaign struggled to connect with voters in the first round, civil society movements subsequently drove his gains 2. Pre-runoff polling indicated the two candidates were nearly evenly matched 2.
Lula, who previously served as president from 2003 to 2010 before returning to office in 2023, sought to secure another term, emphasizing that voters wanted progress rather than regression 1. Bolsonaro, serving as a senator since 2019 and making his first presidential bid, promised to amend the constitution and democratize the country 2. Critically, if elected, Bolsonaro pledged to pardon his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was under house arrest after being sentenced to 27 years in prison for allegedly orchestrating a plot to overturn the 2022 election results 123. With approximately 159 million eligible voters, the winner would need to secure more than 50 percent of the vote 23.
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