巴西总统选举第二轮投票将于周日举行，卢拉与右翼候选人弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗展开决选1。传统工业城市奥萨斯科的投票转向反映出巴西社会的深刻变化：该城市在2022年支持卢拉，但在第一轮选举中改投博尔索纳罗1。这一转变背后是巴西工人阶级结构的根本性重组——从传统工业工人向服务业及零工经济工作者转变1。
卢拉面临严峻的选民流失局面。第一轮选举中有3300万人未投票，创下1998年以来的最高弃票率1。尽管卢拉执政期间失业率曾创历史新低，巴西也被从联合国饥饿地图中移除1，但这些政绩似乎未能阻止支持者的流失。工会领导人吉贝尔托·阿尔玛赞指出，工人阶级已从工业工人转变为服务业工人1，而这些新兴劳动力面临不同的经济诉求。
博尔索纳罗获得了来自多个阵营的支持。约四分之一的巴西人为福音派教徒，宗教领袖西拉斯·马拉法亚支持博尔索纳罗1。博尔索纳罗主张削减政府支出、政府部门和部分税收1。许多选民因经济困难、犯罪和通胀问题寻求变革，转而支持博尔索纳罗1。自1989年以来，每位第一轮获胜者都最终当选总统1，这一历史规律为第二轮投票增添了悬念。
Brazil's presidential election is heading to a second-round vote on Sunday, with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva facing right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro 1. The runoff reflects profound changes in the country's working class, as illustrated by the swing in Osasco, a traditional industrial city that backed Lula in 2022 but shifted toward Bolsonaro in the first round 1.
The transformation of Brazil's labor market is fundamental to understanding the shifting political landscape 1. Union leader Gilberto Almazan noted that the working class has transitioned from industrial workers to service sector employees 1. Osasco exemplifies this shift, having undergone "deindustrialization" and now featuring five shopping centers and tech companies instead of its former manufacturing base 1. This structural economic change has left many workers uncertain about their futures, despite Lula's previous tenure seeing unemployment reach historic lows and Brazil removed from the United Nations hunger map 1.
The first round revealed significant voter disengagement, with 33 million people abstaining—the highest abstention rate since 1998 1. Many voters are backing Bolsonaro in search of change, citing economic hardship, crime, and inflation as their primary concerns 1. Bolsonaro has proposed cutting government spending, government departments, and certain taxes 1. Additionally, religious shifts are influencing the race: approximately one-quarter of Brazilians are now evangelical Christians, and religious leader Silas Malafaia has endorsed Bolsonaro 1. Since 1989, every first-round winner has gone on to win the presidency 1.
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