澳大利亚总生育率已降至历史最低水平1.48（每名女性），远低于人口更替水平2.11。根据预测，这一数字到2065-66年将进一步下滑至1.341。出生率持续下降与人口老龄化相伴随，新移民中位年龄为26岁，而澳大利亚总人口中位年龄已达38岁1。
延迟生育成为生育率下降的重要因素，2023年全球超三分之一的出生来自30岁及以上的女性，而1990年这一比例仅为四分之一1。许多人拥有的家庭规模小于期望，住房成本、托儿支持不足、经济安全、气候变化和性别平等等问题构成主要障碍1。专家Liz Allen指出："我们需要达到这样一点，即拥有一个期望中的孩子或第二个孩子确实是可能的，而不是被难以逾越的障碍所阻挡"1。
出生率和移民下降的叠加效应已成为经济隐患。如果出生率和移民都低于基线预期，到2065-66年澳大利亚人口将减少190万，经济规模将缩小7.4%1。面对人口老龄化和出生率下降的挑战，澳大利亚越来越依赖移民来维持经济增长和劳动力需求1。
Australia is experiencing a historic low in its fertility rate, with the total fertility rate standing at 1.48 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.11. Projections indicate this figure will decline further to 1.34 by 2065–661. The consequences of this demographic shift extend beyond population numbers: if birth rates and immigration fall below baseline expectations, Australia's population could shrink by 1.9 million by 2065–66, and the economy could contract by 7.4 percent1.
The declining birth rate reflects shifting patterns in family formation and mounting barriers to parenthood. In 2023, more than one-third of global births were to women aged 30 and older, compared with one-quarter in 1990, demonstrating delayed childbearing1. Key obstacles preventing people from reaching their desired family size include housing affordability, economic security, climate change concerns, and gender equality issues1. Expert Liz Allen emphasized that "we need to reach a point where having a desired first or second child is actually possible, rather than being blocked by insurmountable barriers"1.
Australia's aging population and low birth rate are increasingly forcing reliance on immigration to sustain economic growth and meet labor demands1. Notably, new migrants have a median age of 26 years, significantly younger than Australia's overall population median age of 38 years1.
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