曾在2024年大选中以约55%的支持率帮助特朗普赢得德克萨斯州的西班牙裔选民，如今正在转向反对这位总统1。特朗普政府激进的遣返政策引发了这一阵营分化，最新民调显示大多数德州西班牙裔选民已改变立场，在定于11月3日举行的中期选举中倾向支持民主党候选人1。这一转变在经济和生活成本成为西班牙裔社区最优先关切议题的背景下尤为显著1。
移民执法政策的激进程度凸显了这一转变的深层动因。2026年7月，德克萨斯州占全美ICE逮捕总数的三分之一，超过其他任何州1。这种高强度的执法行动在西班牙裔社区引发深刻担忧，直接冲击了特朗普政府在该群体中的支持基础。在德州第15国会选区，尽管共和党名义上享有18个百分点的优势，但当前民调显示民主党候选人Bobby Pulido已领先5-6个百分点1，反映出这一地区选民立场的剧烈摇摆。
Hispanic voters in Texas, who delivered a record-breaking 55 percent support for Trump in the 2024 presidential election, are now showing signs of fracturing over the administration's aggressive deportation agenda.1 Recent polling indicates that most Hispanic voters in the state have turned against the president and are leaning toward Democratic candidates ahead of midterm elections scheduled for November 3.1 Economic concerns and the cost of living have emerged as the top priorities for these voters, reflecting a significant shift in their political alignment.1
The change in sentiment coincides with intensified immigration enforcement in Texas.1 In July 2026, Texas accounted for one-third of all Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests nationwide, exceeding any other state.1 This surge in deportations appears to have accelerated the erosion of Trump's support among the Hispanic community that once formed a crucial part of his electoral coalition.
The political realignment is already manifesting in competitive races.1 In Texas's 15th Congressional District, which has been redrawn with a nominal 18-percentage-point Republican advantage, current polling shows Democrats leading by 5 to 6 percentage points.1 Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido is currently ahead in the district's polling matchups.1
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