英国消费者信心指数创近年最大跌幅 生活成本危机加剧

英国消费者信心指数在10月出现自新冠疫情以来最严峻的下滑。1根据GfK的数据，该指数在10月下跌11个百分点至-24，为2016年英国脱欧公投以来的最大单月跌幅（2020年3月新冠疫情初期曾录得-25的最大跌幅）。1这一急剧恶化反映出英国家庭面临的持续经济压力。过去五年间，英国家庭为抵押贷款、贷款、能源和水费等支出平均额外支付了约14,000英镑。1

生活成本上升成为信心下滑的主要驱动因素。1中东地区冲突推高了能源和汽油价格，而通货膨胀率也上升至3.5%。1消费者能源账单预计从明年1月起达到每年2,000英镑。1主要购买指数从10月的-8进一步跌至-22，反映出消费者对大宗购物的信心严重不足。1GfK消费者洞察总监尼尔·贝拉米表示："持续的生活成本压力，加上国际地区冲突背景，已经扫除了我们在新首相任命后看到的初生乐观情绪。"1

在此背景下，英国政府面临双重挑战。财政大臣约翰·希利将在一周内发布预算案，同时需要应对政府赤字达24.5亿英镑的局面。1英国工业联合会高级经济学家卡梅伦·马丁呼吁政府采取行动，指出"如果政府想有意义地应对生活成本危机，必须给制造商呼吸空间以投资并推动生产率增长"。1

British consumer confidence experienced a dramatic collapse in October, with the sentiment index falling 11 percentage points to minus 24, marking the steepest monthly decline since the 2016 Brexit referendum outside of the initial Covid-19 crisis 1. The drop reflects mounting pressures from elevated living costs, driven partly by Middle East conflict pushing energy and petrol prices higher 1.

The deterioration in consumer mood has been particularly sharp in major purchasing intentions, which tumbled from minus 8 to minus 22 in the same period 1. Neil Bellamy, director of consumer insights at GfK, attributed the reversal to "persistent cost-of-living pressures combined with the backdrop of international regional conflict," which has erased the modest optimism that followed the appointment of a new prime minister 1. The broader economic backdrop remains strained: UK inflation has risen to 3.5%, and the government deficit reached £24.5 billion, exceeding forecasts 1.

British households have faced substantial cumulative financial strain, with families paying approximately £14,000 more over the past five years toward mortgages, loans, energy bills, and water charges 1. Energy bills are projected to reach £2,000 annually from January onwards 1. Against this backdrop, Chancellor of the Exchequer John Hunt is preparing to unveil a budget within the coming week, confronting both sagging consumer confidence and tightening public finances 1. Cameron Martin, senior economist at the CBI, underscored the urgency, stating that "if the government is to meaningfully address the cost-of-living crisis, it must give manufacturers breathing room to invest and drive productivity growth" 1.