新西兰总理卢克松多次明确表示将不与机会党组建下一届政府，称对这一立场"再清楚不过了"，并将机会党的土地税计划列为拒绝理由1。然而，民调数据显示卢克松可能无法在缺乏机会党支持的情况下组建政府1，这使得他的拒绝策略面临实际困境。
卢克松的举措被视为向中右翼选民发出的信号，旨在防止他们将选票转向机会党。与此同时，机会党领导人翁表示对与国家党的谈话持开放态度，但强调"我们不是来支撑现有联合政府的"1。机会党已列出包括禁止底拖捕鱼、重申气候行动承诺和限制政治捐款在内的五项底线要求1。
在这种政治态势下，多种联合政府方案正在浮现。工党已表示倾向与绿党和机会党组建三方联合政府1。另一种可能的方案是国家党、机会党和新西兰第一党组成少数派政府，通过与机会党签订信任与供应协议来获得后者的支持1。
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has repeatedly stated his determination to exclude the ACT Party from a coalition government, declaring he has been "as clear as I can possibly be" in rejecting such a partnership 1. Luxon cited ACT's land tax policy proposals as a specific reason for his refusal 1. However, polling data suggests Luxon may be unable to form a government without ACT's parliamentary support 1.
Political analysts suggest Luxon's strategy serves a tactical purpose: signaling to center-right voters to prevent them from switching their votes to ACT 1. The ACT Party leadership has indicated openness to negotiating with the National Party while maintaining its own conditions 1. ACT's leader has stated that "we are not here to prop up the existing coalition government," and the party has outlined five core conditions including banning bottom trawling, recommitting to climate action pledges, and restricting political donations 1.
Meanwhile, Labour has signaled its preference for forming a three-party coalition with the Greens and ACT 1. One potential political arrangement under consideration involves a National-ACT-New Zealand First minority government supported by ACT through a confidence and supply agreement 1.
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