特朗普支持率跌至历史新低，中期选举前景堪忧

在距离美国中期选举仅两周之际，特朗普的支持率创下历史新低。纽约时报与西耶纳学院10月进行的民调显示，特朗普的支持率跌至36%1，而路透社/易普索民调将这一数字降至31%2。这一下滑对特朗普和共和党在中期选举中维持国会多数席位构成严峻挑战。

民调数据反映了选民对特朗普政策处理的广泛不满。59%的受访者不赞成特朗普的总体工作表现1，其中在具体议题上的反感更为突出：65%的人不赞成其对伊朗战争的处理，69%反对其在生活成本上的表现，73%的受访者不同意其在油价上的处理方式1。这些负面评价与现实经济状况密切相关——截至10月21日，汽油价格已超过每加仑4.25美元1，同月通胀率上升至3.7%1。

在选票倾向上，52%的可能投票者表示计划在选举中投票支持民主党候选人1。多家民调机构的数据显示，民主党在选民中领先共和党3，且多数美国人预期民主党将赢得众议院控制权3。民主党正在德州、俄亥俄州、纽约州、阿拉斯加州和爱荷华州等竞争激烈的地区与共和党对抗1。

Two weeks before the midterm elections, a New York Times/Siena College poll revealed that President Trump's approval rating has fallen to 36%, marking a historic low for the survey 1. Multiple polling organizations have documented this decline, with some surveys showing his approval as low as 31% 2. Trump's support dropped 2 percentage points between September and October 1.

Disapproval of Trump's handling of key issues remains widespread. Fifty-nine percent of respondents disapprove of his performance overall, while 73% disapprove of his response to oil prices, 69% disapprove of his approach to the cost of living, and 65% disapprove of his handling of the Iran conflict 1. The poll, conducted in October among approximately 3,494 likely voters, captured a moment when gasoline prices exceeded $4.25 per gallon as of October 21, and inflation had risen to 3.7% 1.

These declining numbers present challenges for Republicans seeking to maintain their congressional majorities. Fifty-two percent of respondents indicated they plan to vote for Democratic candidates 1, and polling shows that likely voters prefer Democrats to Republicans 3. Democrats are mounting competitive campaigns against Republican advantages in contested states including Texas, Ohio, New York, Alaska, and Iowa 1.