联合国环境规划署发布的《2026年排放差距报告》指出，全球变暖将突破前工业化水平1.5℃，但通过实施深度快速减排仍可在本世纪末将温度拉回至1.5℃以下1。报告明确了最低过度升温情景下的减排目标：相对2025年水平，需在2030年底前削减排放18%、2035年前削减45%、2040年前削减69%1。
若当前政策继续不变，本世纪升温可能达到2.8℃1。即使所有国家的气候行动计划全部实施，升温也将被限制在2.6℃1。为实现目标，报告提出具体能源转型要求：到2030年，可再生能源装机容量应增至三倍，能效改进的年率应翻倍；到2035年，煤炭、石油、天然气在能源供应中的占比分别需至少下降55%、15%和5%1。
联合国秘书长古特雷斯强调，"过度升温不是投降。我们仍然可以将其保持尽可能小和短暂"1。UNEP执行主任Inger Andersen指出，"1.5℃以上的每一个额外分度和额外年份都会增加气候影响"1。
The United Nations Environment Programme released its 2026 Emissions Gap Report, confirming that global temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, yet warning that rapid and substantial emissions reductions could still bring warming back below this threshold by century's end.1 Under the lowest overshoot scenario, the world must cut emissions by 18 percent by the end of 2030, 45 percent by 2035, and 69 percent by 2040—all measured relative to 2025 levels.1
The report presents a stark contrast between different climate futures. Should current policies persist, global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, while even if all nations implement their existing climate action commitments, warming would still be limited to 2.6°C.1 To chart a narrower path forward, the report calls for renewable energy capacity to triple by 2030 alongside a doubling of annual energy efficiency improvements, with coal, oil, and natural gas each declining to represent at most 55 percent, 15 percent, and 5 percent respectively of the global energy supply by 2035.1
UN Secretary-General António Guterres framed the challenge as one of urgency but not inevitability, stating that "overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as brief as possible."1 Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP, underscored the stakes by noting that "every additional tenth of a degree and every additional year above 1.5°C increases climate impacts."1
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