巴基斯坦与阿富汗塔利班政权的冲突自2026年2月以来不断升级1。巴基斯坦指控塔利班当局允许巴基斯坦塔利班运动（TTP）从阿富汗领土对其发动袭击1。2026年3月，巴基斯坦国防部长表示该国与阿富汗处于"公开战争"状态1，到10月初，巴基斯坦又对阿富汗塔利班的"恐怖分子据点"发动了新一轮打击1。
这一区域局势变化为印度创造了战略机遇。2025年12月，印度恢复了喀布尔-德里和喀布尔-阿姆利则之间的空运联系1。2025-26财年印度与阿富汗双边贸易额约为9.08亿美元，而同期巴基斯坦与阿富汗贸易因反复边境关闭而大幅下降1。印度外交也在加强接触，2026年10月14日，塔利班外长阿米尔汗·穆塔基在与印度武官雅廷·帕特尔会谈时强调了与印度关系的重要性1。巴基斯坦驻联合国外交官穆罕默德·贾瓦德·阿杰迈尔在2026年10月7日指控印度以人道主义援助为幌子向塔利班提供物资和后勤支持1。
Pakistan and Afghanistan's Taliban-led government have remained locked in an escalating conflict since February 2026, with Pakistan launching strikes against Taliban militants accused of launching attacks from Afghan territory 1. In March 2026, Pakistan's Defense Minister characterized the relationship as an "open war" 1. The tensions intensified further when Pakistan conducted fresh military operations in early October targeting what it described as Taliban "terrorist hideouts" 1.
At the core of the dispute lies Pakistan's accusation that the Taliban authorities permit the Pakistani Taliban movement (TTP) to operate from Afghan soil and conduct attacks against Pakistan 1. As this conflict deepens, India has begun positioning itself to capitalize on the regional realignment. In December 2025, India resumed air connectivity between Kabul and Delhi, as well as between Kabul and Amritsar 1. Trade flows have shifted markedly in India's favor: bilateral commerce between India and Afghanistan reached approximately $908 million in the 2025-26 fiscal year, while Pakistan-Afghanistan trade has declined substantially due to repeated border closures 1.
India's diplomatic outreach has accelerated accordingly. On October 14, 2026, Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi emphasized the importance of relations with India during talks with Indian Defense Attache Yatin Patel 1. However, India's efforts have drawn scrutiny from Pakistan, with Pakistani UN diplomat Muhammad Jawad Ajmair accusing New Delhi on October 7, 2026, of using humanitarian aid as cover to provide material and logistical support to the Taliban 1.
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