联合国环境规划署在《2026年排放差距报告》中指出，巴黎协议在2015年制定的1.5°C升温限制目标已在十年内变得无法实现1。报告指出，用"无或有限"的超调来弥合1.5°C排放差距的机会已经丧失1，全球升温超过1.5°C已成为必然趋势。
为此，报告调整了气候目标，新的重点是确保全球变暖不超过2°C，并在本世纪末前恢复到1.5°C1。为实现这一目标，全球温室气体排放需要在2030年减少18%、2035年减少45%、2040年减少69%（相对2025年基准）1。然而，各国当前的减排承诺远远不足，预计仅能实现2030年减5-8%和2035年减11-15%的减排幅度1。
报告对能源结构转型提出了具体要求1。到2035年，全球可再生能源容量必须较2025年增加两倍，同时煤炭、石油和天然气在能源生产中的份额分别需要下降55%、15%和5%1。此外，全球还需从大气中移除320吉吨二氧化碳，相当于2024年排放量的8倍1。
联合国秘书长指出，"排放差距现在是领导力差距"1。值得注意的是，自巴黎协议采纳以来，全球可再生电力容量的增长速度已快于预期3倍，太阳能光伏更是增长了7倍1，这表明技术进步为实现气候目标提供了基础。
The United Nations Environment Programme has declared that the 1.5°C warming limit enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement can no longer be met within the coming decade 1. According to the 2026 Emissions Gap Report, the opportunity to bridge the gap with "none or limited overshoot" has been forfeited 1. The revised objective now focuses on preventing global warming from exceeding 2°C while aiming to return to 1.5°C by the end of the century 1.
The report outlines steep emission reduction requirements: a global cut of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040, all measured against 2025 baseline levels 1. However, current national commitments fall dramatically short, projected to deliver only 5–8% reductions by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035 1. UN Secretary-General emphasized that "the emissions gap is now a leadership gap" 1. Meeting these targets demands that renewable energy capacity triple by 2035 relative to 2025 levels, while coal, oil, and natural gas must each decline by 55%, 15%, and 5% respectively from their current energy production shares 1. Additionally, 320 gigatons of carbon dioxide must be removed from the atmosphere—equivalent to eight times the 2024 global emission volume 1.
Despite the sobering outlook, renewable electricity has expanded three times faster than anticipated since the Paris Agreement's adoption, with solar photovoltaic capacity growing seven times the initial projection 1.
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