中国气象局近日对公众关于台风"红霞"登陆地点多次变更的质疑作出解释[1]。气象部门指出，预报范围的不断调整并非预报能力不足，而是随着时间推进、数据更新，预报精准度逐步提升的正常科学过程[1]。
从7月23日至7月25日，台风登陆预报经历了三次调整[1]。最初预报范围为广东中东部到福建南部一带沿海[1]；24日缩小至广东珠海到福建漳浦一带沿海，直线距离400多公里[1]；到了25日进一步精准为香港到广东陆丰一带，范围缩小至100多公里[1]。这种"递进式服务"反映了气象部门的预报精准度在不断提高[1]。
The China Meteorological Administration has addressed public concerns about repeated changes to Typhoon "Hongxia's" projected landfall location, clarifying that the shifts reflect improved forecasting precision rather than inaccuracy.[1]
As time progressed, the forecasted landing zone was systematically refined through what meteorologists describe as a "progressive service" approach. The initial forecast issued on July 23 placed the typhoon's landfall somewhere along a stretch of coastline spanning from central and eastern Guangdong to southern Fujian.[1] By July 24, the projected zone had contracted to the area between Zhuhai, Guangdong and Zhangpu, Fujian, representing a distance of over 400 kilometers.[1] The forecast was further narrowed on July 25 to a range spanning from Hong Kong to Lufeng, Guangdong—a distance of just over 100 kilometers.[1]
This progressive narrowing of the forecasted landing zone demonstrates the scientific process of typhoon prediction, in which model accuracy increases as the storm approaches and more observational data becomes available. The shift from the initial wide projection to one spanning roughly 100 kilometers exemplifies how meteorological agencies enhance forecast precision over time.[1]