佛罗里达州立大学的研究表明，美国国家飓风中心2024年推出的改进预报图形虽然帮助公众更清晰地识别受威胁区域，但这一改进并未有效提升人们对潜在危险的关注度或采取防护行动的意愿1。该研究在佛罗里达州和乔治亚州进行，对传统锥形图与新实验版本进行了对比评估1。
研究发现，改进的图形确实帮助非气象专业人士更好地识别内陆飓风或热带风暴警报区域1。然而，识别能力的提升并未转化为人们对风险的更大认识或更强的安全预防意图1。公众普遍存在一个根本性误解——经常将预报锥形的宽度解释为风暴的物理尺寸，而非实际代表的路径不确定性1。该研究已发表在《Weather, Climate, and Society》2026年第18卷第3期，由佛罗里达州立大学内部SEED资助支持1。
Researchers at Florida State University have found that enhanced hurricane forecast maps introduced by the National Hurricane Center in 2024 help the public more easily identify threatened areas, yet they do not significantly increase risk awareness or motivate people to take protective action. 1
The study, conducted in Florida and Georgia, compared public responses to traditional cone-shaped forecast graphics with new experimental versions. 1 The improved visualizations succeeded in helping non-meteorologists better recognize inland hurricane and tropical storm warning zones. 1 However, this improved ability to identify at-risk areas did not translate into greater concern about potential dangers or stronger intentions to implement safety measures. 1
A persistent misunderstanding emerged from the research: the public frequently misinterprets the width of the forecast cone as an indicator of the storm's physical size rather than the uncertainty in its projected path. 1
The findings were published in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and Society, Volume 18, Issue 3, in 2026. 1 The research was supported internally by Florida State University's SEED funding program. 1
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